SPY Well I guess it took the weekly RSI to read oversold and one last flush after the FED meeting to get the rally we all waited for. Question now is how much and for how long? The longer it holds 115.70 the 200 weekly moving average the better. I would like to see some digestion since this level of volatility is frightening and not too healthy in the long run. Finally got us some positive pivots. A running theme tomorrow is to buy dips to the pivots on the stronger stocks-especially ones that took out R1. Another theme will be to reverse that and look for shorts of those same instruments that fail S1. FTP in SPY is 115.97.
DIA The 200 weekly moving average is 107.15 but that did get tested until after the FED meeting so it was hard to know which way it would go next and what the risk was until the last hour. Then, off to the races. FTP for a dip 110.19.
QQQ 55.00 some good resistance. The FTP 52.02.
IWM** Big key is that this is the only index that has an Accumulation day in volume. In fact, better volume today than in all of the down days. Plus, although the daily chart is no longer oversold, the weekly one still shows an extremely low RSI. Could have a lot more room to upside. But same directions, dip to the FTP 67.65 and S1 56.67.
ETFs:
GLD Unless it clears 172, a break of the FTP at 169.76 could mean more profit taking in store. Trend still very strong, but a move down to 164.75 area is fairly likely and a good buy opportunity.
SLV Once this failed 37.42 as I wrote last night, had a super low risk short. Slope on 50 DMA now slightly down with a close beneath. Now back over 37.19. the short trend will reverse.
IBB SMH IYT stayed above 200 weekly moving average and turned out to be great for the relief rally. IYRfollowed as well. Like the indexes, watch to see what happens on a dip to the FTPs.
FCG Hopefully some of you watched this move back above the 200 weekly moving average. Now, 18.31 is support and 18.57 pivotal on a closing basis.
OIH** Inside day and high today matches the 200 weekly moving average exactly. 132.19 is that number. The FTP to try a dip is 127.16-otherwise, watch for a short if fails the 200 weekly MA and S1 at 124.32
TLT We know rates cannot go to zero, at least we do not think so. Still watching for this to top out, but not fighting the trend for now.
Longs: Buy dips to the pivots on the stronger stocks-especially ones that took out R1. Some of the picks had giant moves-BIDU GMCR up 10%, JAZZ IDCC up 12% QCOR 11.4% WYNN 8.3% AAPL NFLX AMZN only 5%. Notice how tracking the leaders is the best way to gauge the market and make money daytrading and in this case, possible miniswing trading.
Other picks include ones with an inside day and some that moved up but underperformed the indexes.
CLB**2 days under the FTP and anemic move compared to the market. Tried to get through R1 and never closed above it on a 30 minute bar. Must get above R1 102 and yesterday's high 102.11. The FTP is at 99.19 good support with the 160 EMA at 99.45. Day to mini
LVS Yahoo has it listed as reporting today and trading slightly higher in the aftermarket. Inside day. Pivots at 39, which should now hold and above 40.01 today's high could see move to 43 area. Day to mini
ANF Reports August 17th. Held the 200 DMA at 60.78 and ran past R1. The FTP is 64.21 a good place to watch for a dip. Could see a run to 69.00 area before earnings if market firms more. Day to mini
LULU Under the positive sloping 50 DMA. The FTP is at 49.59 which must hold. A mixed signal is the 70 EMA which is also overhead and sloping down. Therefore this could be a long or short. Long over the FTP with tight stop under 48 OR short under 48 and stop at the FTP. Day to mini
NLC** Love that this never filled the gap from old high 29.46 after the huge gap higher. Now, has worked itself lower, holding the gap and the 50 DMA at 29.74. The FTP at 31.15 good nearby support. Over 32 could see pop to 34 or if market good, higher. Day to swing
APA Says it reported today. Closed back over the 200 weekly moving average 100.90. Has negative pivots though even with the move over R1. Therefore must hold 99.64 the FTP. But, if it does, has room to 115. Day to mini
Note-VHC might report before the open-if so, inside day and over today's high also clears the 200 DMA at 20.13
Shorts: Read the long setups and ETFs carefully. With positive pivots, can fail the FTP and then S1 and easily reverse.
Goodnight!