SPY hard to know if the run today was the start of a bottoming formation or a good rally to last week's resistance. Incredible how it nearly wiped out yesterday's loss. A true testimony to the ongoing volatility. Fact-good follow through over yesterday's high after inside day. Fact-Volume ok but not the accumulation that would be more encouraging. Fact-Back over the 200 weekly moving average. Fact-Did not close over this week's high. Fact-Nearly a Death Cross on the major moving averages which would gives us an official Bearish Phase. If SPY closes out the week above 120.08, last week's close, then the signs for more upside are better. Otherwise, if SPY breaks down from here, the Facts support more downside.
DIA Looks nearly identical to SPY except the major moving averages are still a bit away from the threatening death cross.
QQQ Will make the same case here-although nowhere near the 200 weekly. A close above 53.83 would be encouraging.
IWM**Also close to a death cross. The weekly close to watch here is 71.33
ETFs:
GLD Got out of balance of long under S1, but now, since it broke S2 as well, needs to clear R1 172.54 to get going again.
SLV Since never confirmed an opening range breakdown, the minisiwng position from yesterday still intact. Now must hold 37.62, the FTP to stay long or establish a new long and a break of 38.30 should keep it going up. A move under today's low would bring it back to test 36.00.
IBB Went into depth about all of the major groups SMH IYT IYR XLY and EWT in today's video. All busted out of their inside day and holding the 200 weekly moving average. Since all have positive pivots, watch to see if their FTPs hold. Only EWT has a death cross-the rest are in Distribution phases. These merit careful watching since as of now, SMH EWT IYR are all above last week's close. IBB IYR XLY are not.
XLF provided it holds 12.38 and closes above 13.43 on a weekly basis, could be bottoming out.
FCG Got over 18.41 as wrote last night and got back above the 200 weekly moving average. If holds 19, could see 20.20 area next.
OIH** today was the day to buy OIH on the opening range breakout. Closed above the last 2 days highs, but not above the 200 weekly moving average 132.19. Provided 129.50 holds now, the FTP, a close above the 200 weekly is encouraging.
TLT Perfect trade if followed the numbers-see chart for how it worked.
Longs: Strategy of buying the picks on the retracement to the pivots and those with OR reversals on stocks with positive pivots such as SINA TPX worked great. The other strategy to buy over the 30 min OR once held and tested the pivots if negatively stacked, especially after an inside day also worked great such as in DE NFLX and others.
Tonight, some inside days, and others with positive pivots and clear risks for new entries. I will be carefully watching the indexes and ETFs mentioned before recommending any new buy and hold positions.
IBM** had an inside day and positive pivots at 166.01. 164.22 is the 160 EMA which also held today. Would buy a dip especially on an OR reversal, but also if market is strong, above today's high and R1 with the FTP as a tighter risk. Day to mini
VHC** Three inside days now. Needs to clear above the 200 DMA at 20.15 also clears the 50 weekly moving average at 19.12. Positive pivots so must hold 18.77. Incredibly paused here for such a big ATR stock. Would not be long under today's low. Day to mini
WLL Inside day positive pivots at 47.61. If that holds and clears today's high, could see move to 52.00 area.Daytrade
DVA** Inside day with big support at recent low 70.37. Positive pivots coming in at 72.12. Another one to look at for an OR reversal against support or above the pivots and R1 at 73.51. Would not be afraid to buy strength since this has not been over R1 in a while. Day to mini
VAR** another inside day holding the 200 weekly at 51.13. Positive pivots at 53.65. A lot of these picks are very oversold on the weekly so would not be shorting if they do not setup for buys. Watch for the same setup that we used today for the ones with inside days. Day to mini
CTSH** FSLR**similar setups as the others. Positive pivots, inside day, oversold on weekly.
FIO** Nice looking chart and yet another inside day. Over the 10 DMA at 27.40. Positive pivots at 28.46. One good strategy is trading under the FTP like TPX did when it had its reversal, is to lower the stop to under the last hour low from the day before with fudge. Day to mini
JAZZ AAPL QCOM BIDU NFLX CMG COG would only buy on OR reversal.
Shorts:
PCLN**Negative pivots at 497.79. The real risk is to over the 50 DMA at 510, but to control that, if breaks the pivots and the OR low, then can short and use a tight intraday stop. Under 487 breaks S1 and then next support back to the 200 DMA 469. Day to mini
BEXP Rallied right to the 50 and 200 DMA overhead resistance. If breaks 27.84 have risk to 29.53. And if it breaks 26.71, S1 then could see drop back down to recent lows Day to mini
POT ran up to the 50 and 10 DMA resistance. But like BEXP with positive pivots, first must break 54.02 with risk to 55.01, then S1 at 53.02 to stay short. Day to mini
Goodnight!