SPY Last time we tested the 200 DMA, the bounce was incredible but took a couple of false starts and then a couple of days of digestion. Important to note is that it never closed below the 200 DMA back in June. If we get 2 closes in a row beneath 128.64 that would put it in a Distribution Phase. SPY is oversold. At this point, would not be looking to short. 129.63 was the recent low until Friday. Will watch what happens in the next couple of days especially given the political environment.
QQQ Back in June, while SPY tested and held the 200 DMA, this broke below and then spent a week consolidating before it took off. Now, QQQ is much stronger. R1 has been resistance. Above 58.60 is positive. The 50 DMA is underlying support at 56.91.
IWM Broke but closed above the 200 DMA at 79.56. Also oversold. Above R1 would be a good sign that the 200 DMA may remain intact. Otherwise, looking at 77.31, the 50 weekly moving average.
ETFs:
GLD The weekly RSI indicates overbought, although the trend is incredibly strong. I have been reluctant to buy at these levels. 158.41 is the FTP. Above that with an opening range confirmation on either a breakout or reversal, a low risk is to Friday's low.
XLE** 77.09 which was support, now resistance. A move above and could see this trade higher because the long term bullish trend still intact. Otherwise, will watch for a test of the 50 DMA at 75.13.
OIH** Stronger than XLE. With 2 days under the FTP, if it opens and holds above 157.33 risk to under Friday low. Above 159.16 R1, still looking for a move to 166.
IYT Closed above the 200 DMA at 93.24 after testing it intraday. 91.18 the 50 weekly moving average and major support. Otherwise, over 94.44 new life.
SMH Broke the 50 weekly moving average at 32.50. Big area to watch for either a move above or now resistance.
FXI **Held key support. Now over 42.64, 43.40 next resistance.
XLF Over 15.00 back in business. Otherwise, 14.45 recent low and support
TLT Big move last Friday as rates dropped. Note Golden Cross in late June. Friday was strongest close since November 8, 2010. Also, dollar looks like it could drop further if Euro trades above 1.44
Longs: Friday, ISRG rallied $20.00 off of the lows. We tweeted about buying the August 390 calls which we sold by the end of the day with a 60% return. Trades are tweeted for total transparency and the list is designed to give you parameters but also a focus of which stocks to watch even if you are not following twitter. Recommendations continue to represent Nuggets with short term trading patterns.
GPOR**Reports August 4th. Had a great move Friday. Now if holds 35.91 the FTP, all time high 38.09 could happen before it reports. Day to mini
BEXP**Reports August 8. Tested and rallied off of the 70 EMA. Now 4 days under the FTP at 31.52. Would buy above R1, 32.45 and risk to under the FTP to see if it can rally to 37.80 or beyond before the report. Day to mini
SLB**Broke the 10 DMA now at 91.12. Has 4 days under the FTP now at 90.58. R1 is at 91.38 which is also over the 10 DMA so a good place to buy above with a tight risk to the FTP. In a good market still has great potential. Day to Swing
BIDU** 3 days under FTP coming in at 155.77. R1 at 159.20. If comes in above the FTP, would look for a risk as close to that number as possible. Above R1 with a strong market, could see return to highs. Day to swing
AAPL* 3 days under the FTP at 390.48. AAPL has to hold the 10 DMA at 389.50 and clear R1 at 395.36. Would buy above the FTP and risk to the 10 DMA and add over R1 since stock still very strong. Day to swing
IDCC**Reported Friday. 3 days under the FTP coming in at 67.17. Provided that holds, could use a tight risk to the 10 DMA 66.18 for daytrade or mini and under Friday low for swing. Must clear R1 at 71.25 as well. Recent high 82.50. Day to swing
BWA** Reported last week. Inside day on Friday. Positive pivots coming in at 79.45 which must hold. Risk is to Friday low 77.78. Must really clear the all time high at 82.28 to stay strong, but with tight risk, trading for that possibility. Day to Swing.
GOOG**Held S1 Friday and has 3 days under the FTP coming in at 607.64. Tight risk to last Thursday low 603. Above R1 611.32 should continue move up with some resistance at 621, recent high 627.50. Day to swing
SOHU reports Monday-SGY reports Tuesday-both worth watching.
Shorts: Many charts now showing oversold on the 2 Day RSI-will have to wait for some rally before recommending for reentry.
BA** The 50 weekly moving average is at 70.41. The pivots are negative. If it breaks 70.28, can use the risk to above the 50 weekly moving average . Next support at 69.00 area. Would not short above 71.33. Day to swing
NFLX Would not be short above 268.33 (and would consider a long). But below the FTP 264.41 if it fails on an opening range breakdown, then can short. Under 260.40, the 70 EMA, next support 251.46. Day to swing
TMO** Provided it stays below 60.18 the FTP with a risk to Friday high, 60.98, a break of 58.90 and see next stop the 200 DMA at 57.20. Day to swing
LMT** Broke the 200 DMA and resting on the 50 weekly moving average at 75.68. The FTP is at 75.75. A break of that area and the 50 weekly, could see drop to 70. Day to swing (Note BA and GD also defense stocks)
Have a great Sunday!