SPY If we get 2 closes in a row beneath 128.70 that would put it in a Distribution Phase. Now, 4 Distribution days in volume. The signs have been there since the island top back in July. The slope on the 50 never turned positive. In hindsight, this index was telling us all along about the issues with the economy both here and globally. 125.28 was the low in March. Will watch to see if holds that level. Back over the 50 weekly would be encouraging at least for a short term pop.
QQQ 56.06 down to 56.00 the 160 EMA and 200 DMA support levels. 54.85 the 50 weekly moving average. I have written articles about the slope of the moving averages. Clearly, when the 50 DMA slope turned negative another warning sign. This index will be a primary focus for either a bounce over the FTP 56.73 or a failure of that level with an OR high failure for a continued short.
IWM Confirmed Distribution Phase with two closes under the 200 DMA. Unless this rallies and closes above the 50 weekly moving average at 77.62, continue to sell rallies
ETFs:
GLD Flight to quality and once this got moving, the tell tale sign. Now, pivots at 160.70 so will watch for that level to hold.
SLV 40.35 recent high so for now underperforming GLD. 39.45 area to hold or would consider the possibility of a reversal, especially if it breaks 39.00
OIH** Another major focus as the 50 DMA still holding and sloping up. If it gets down to 150.80 would buy. But will also watch for an entry on the basis of the opening range.
IYT I wrote about the trouble this was telling us a while back and it has dropped 10% since then. 88.90 was the March low. If by some miracle that holds, could be a sign for some rally.
IYR** tested and closed below the 200 DMA. Still holding the 50 weekly MA. Over 58.45, the FTP a return move over the 200 DMA as well. Watch for that possibility
Longs: I will primarily watch the ETFs and indexes tomorrow as that is now the best indicator of the health going forward. A couple of picks however, that have potential. Rather than write specific setups, will have these charts posted and tweet possible entries, stops and targets as I see them.
SLB**87.07 the 70 EMA and underlying support. FTP at 88.68. Oversold, still a Nugget and still good weekly chart with positive slope on the 50 DMA. Day to Swing
IDCC** 63.08 the low from 2 days ago and today's low 63.18. Now wall of support to trade off of. 5 days under the FTP coming in at 65.10. Still good chart on daily and weekly. Good candidate if market firms. Day to swing
TZOO started to rally and closed above the FTP which is positive again coming in at 55.31. The 200 DMA and support is 54.45. Possible rally to 58.33, the 160 EMA and Friday's high. Day to mini
JVA positive pivots coming in at 21.57 with the 10 DMA at 20.45. Could still run to 24. Day to mini
ACE** 10 DMA crossed the 50 DMA which is sloping up. 4 days under the FTP at 66.47 tomorrow. 65.61 the 70 EMA and good swing risk. Mini under 65.93 and daytrade under 66.38 last hour low. Over today's high clears R1. Day to Swing
Note EMR the 200 DMA at 46.50 and very oversold. Reported today.
Shorts: So many oversold but all the short picks have been incredible considering.
ABC* Negative pivots but still holding the 200 DMA at 37.35. The FTP at 37.69. Would not short above R1 37.93 as is oversold. Day to mini.
CBST* Under the 70 EMA and oversold with negative pivots at 33.80. If breaks 33 could see move to 27.25 the 50 weekly moving average. Day to swing
CRM** Under the 70 EMA, inside day and small trendline that breaks under today's low 143.19. Negative pivots coming in at 145.02 so would not short above. Recent low 141.60 and some support otherwise, 138.50 next with the 50 weekly moving average at 133.46. Day to swing
Goodnight!
