SPY So as not to repeat the obvious, want to talk about volume patterns. Yesterday the hammer candle was not supported by the "double the average daily volume" rule of thumb. Today, the volume did indeed double. Now we need confirmation before we holler bottom, but it is safe to say that a bounce is likely since blow out volume often accompanies a top or bottom in price. All depends now on the opening levels and of course the jobs report.
QQQ Ditto concerning volume. 54.83 is the FTP and 50 weekly moving average. Watch that number. Of the three indexes-only one whose ultrashort has not crossed the 50 weekly moving average.
IWM Not double the volume today-big but not enough. 73.82 is the FTP to cross before we get too excited.
Eminis In 2008 things got real nasty when it broke 1156. At that time, the price was below the 200 weekly and the moving averages were in a death cross. Now, still above the 200 weekly but below the 50 weekly which made a golden cross back in March but without a positive slope on the 200 DMA. Right now, a rally to 1248 would look like a sell opportunity, but at these levels the downside is not where real money can be made.
ETFs:
GLD Fear did not subside but the 160.90, S1 broke anyway. Wrote about volume pattern negative yesterday. Hope you took profits. Bearish engulfing pattern and big volume. Now, under 159 very suspicious action. Only a move above 163 would reverse the warning.
SLV If there is a case to study volume patterns and blow off rallies-here it is. Don't say I didn't warn you.
OIH Never held any of the support areas I was looking for so no position. This, like so many of the ETFs, has a lot of work to do to show anything close to a bottom. But with that said, would be hesitant to short now for anything other than a scalp with low risk.
TLT** Had double the volume and a possible blow off rally. If TLT fails S1 at 103.30 and then today's low that would certainly be a good confirmation.
UUP** Over 21.41 have tight risk to under today's low 21.30
Longs: Picks tonite either held S1, had an inside day and outperformed the market or is a Condition Nugget that might have a good chance for a rally. At this point, day to mini from long side is about all I can foresee with so much damage done.
OSG** No discernable chart support except that it had a bullish engulfing pattern with positive pivots at 20.26, If that holds and get a tight risk, could see a move up to 23.00. Day to mini
MLI** Bumping up against the 50 DMA 39.03. Positive pivots at 38.45 a good risk. Could see run to 40.50 Day to mini
QCOR** Still holding the gap! 28.20 is the high before the earnings, today's low 28.56. The FTP is 29.39 which must cross then could risk to under today's low. Over R1 30.21, back in biz and would stick for mini with target 32. Day to mini
DV Reports Aug 11Today's low 58.83 is slightly above the 70 EMA at 58.71. Wall of support to hold. Pivots positive at 59.88 which also corresponds with the 50 DMA at 59.77. Watch the range break over the 50 DMA or under the 70 EMA and follow. Day to mini
MA inside day, negative pivots so must hold today's low 322.60. If does, over the FTP 327.31 could see a pop to 340. Under S1 319.10 could see a drop to 312 the 10 DMA. Daytrade
CNC**Inside day, outperformed and hugging the 200 DMA while holding the 50 weekly moving average. The FTP is at 30.08-over the 200 DMA with a real close risk to recent low 29.55. Some resistance at 31.70, then 33.00 Day to mini
Post earnings PCLN good to watch for 2 min OR fade/follow. CF 149.72 the 50 DMA resistance
Shorts: MA DV on long list could also set up for a short-see above. Otherwise, so many so oversold
PCG Pivots positive so must fail 40.53 with risk to 41.00 R1. If breaks yesterday's low 39.93 could see 37.40 area next Day to swing
Goodnight!