Low volume reigned while the market continued its ascent. Could be ominous, could be just summer doldrums, could be lack of any real news. It was a good Monday start though, so best not to read into anything just yet.
S&P 500 (SPY) 139.34 support with Friday's low more important to defend from here. Subs:Possible slingshot but needs confirmation with follow through and good volume on downside or just notching this up to dull market. In all indexes, S1 is now a point to hold before we start looking for another correction.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 80.00 remains a point to clear with 77.75 point to hold
Dow (DIA) Filled old gap from last May and closed under on low volume. Subs: Another possible slingshot, but again, lack of volume makes that not so evident
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Also filled a gap from May and closed beneath. RSIs getting up there-and super low volume
ETFs:
GLD Back to its recent recovery phase.Subs: 155.75 support to hold and will look to see if can breakout with volume or give us an opening range reversal
XLF (Financials) Defending 14.85 now but has to clear 15.00 next
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day and on the fast moving average.
SMH (Semiconductors) Subs: Don't put too much credence into possible slingshots when there is no volume. Confirmed accumulation phase with 32.40 level key support
XRT (Retail) Want to see what happens now at 59.50 since it could not stay above 60. Subs: Needs another day to confirm the trendline break I showed you in today's video
IYT (Transportation) Sobering for sure. Could not get back above the 200 DMA. Subs: A move above today's high would be a game changer
IYR (Real Estate) 66.21 recent highs remains resistance until it clears
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Still long unless it breaks today's low or the 10 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) It's all about the 200 DMA support holding
XLE (Energy) 69.40 key support. 70.00 closer near-term support as the gap low from last Friday
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs:Needs to clear the 50 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Note: No Category 1, 2 or 4 now. And, a limited number of fresh picks in general
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PPG Entered for swing with a good risk. Now has to hold 109 and clear 111 area
HMSY 34.22 is max risk and needs to clear 35.00
AGU Inside day. Like this if holds 94.93 or clears today's high
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Phase Change: CRZO unconfirmed phase change to accumulation provided 25.95 holds up. IBM Has to clear 200. NSCInside day and needs to hold 74.53 and push over 75.00 RRC 62.72 is max risk, a close over 66.00 very positive CRM Returned to an unconfirmed warning phase provided 132.20 holds. Over 133 clears the 50 DMA YOKU:Confirmed a slingshot (big volume) which means if holds 16.88 m can look for OR reversal
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
HLF Inside day. Has to break S1 and not clear 54.13
CHRW Should not clear 53.93 and should fail S1 53.43
LULU sold off on good volume. Now cannot clear 56.93
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
WLT 7 days over pivots and overbought. Has to break 36.10 and not clear 37.94
Bye for now!