Marketgauge has developed some really sophisticated scanning tools, not the least of which is one that categorizes over 400 instruments into phases. Often, the most telling indicator is the number of instruments that change to a more positive or negative phase. Here is how that breaks down as of this moment: 79 in an accumulation phase (up huge over last few days), 57 in a bearish phase (down over the last few days) 130 in a bullish phase (certainly up in the last few days), 13 in a distribution phase, 90 in a recovery phase and 30 in a warning phase. I not only have the information that tells me what phase an instrument is currently in, but also when it changes phases in real time. What I see right now is that many instruments are gathering momentum to go much higher should the overall market stay in its current bull phase. The ones already bullish, although the crème de la crème, are somewhat extended. Therefore, so many opportunities await this market be it catching the instruments that are accumulating to keep going up, or if the market turns, catching them from the short side as they deteriorate in phase. Good stuff! Subs: Interesting point in indexes as projected pivots are negative, yet all of them held S1 today. That means an open under pivots caution, under S1 trouble, over R1 much safer and in between, more chop with low volume expected to continue.
S&P 500 (SPY) Possible shooting star candlestick formation did not confirm. But, still would exercise caution under 140. Volume remains extremely light
Russell 2000 (IWM) Last night I wrote that if this can hold 79, next time through 80.00 will be stronger. Sticking to that.
Dow (DIA) Possible shooting star candlestick formation did not confirm. Again, under 131, would exercise caution
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day which also presents a key support level to hold or see a move down to 65.20.Subs: Today's low lines up with S1
ETFs:
GLD After an inside day gave no clear path other than a hold of the fast moving average. Subs: Will try again over 156.75. Has positive pivots
XLF (Financials) Shooting stars on the daily chart remain unless this clears 15.06. If not could see lower prices without violating the positive phase.
IBB (Biotechnology) 132.00 key to hold as this continues its slumber
SMH (Semiconductors) Saw possible shooting stars here as well, and now followed by an inside day. Today's low becomes important
XRT (Retail) This is either a double top at 60.86 or a point to clear after some digestion occurs. And now an inside day to help see clearer.
IYT (Transportation) 91.15 still key to cross otherwise remains our designated driver.
IYR (Real Estate) 63.35 support. Subs: R1 and today's high line up.
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Holding the tail as it tried first time the 160 EMA
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day with 39.60 the 200 DMA level to hold
XLE (Energy) Yet another inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries)Confirmed a phase change
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
i.e. ONXX HD LEN AXP SYK HMSY all set up today-the risk was clear, entries triggered, now it's up to you to decide to hold for the swing-I am here to help.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
COF now want to see 56.30 the FTP hold and clear 56.90 R1. Back to condition 1.
WFM 93.24 max risk. Has to clear 93.95 then R1 and today's high
EWW Today's low max risk. Has to clear 62.86, then, today's high and R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
DLR Approaching oversold on daily. 74.60 good swing risk (50 DMA). Has to clear 75.67, then today's high and R1 line up.
EHTH Over 17.95 clears R1 with risk 17.55
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AXP 57.36 now max risk
DTV Inside day. 49.00 support and should clear 50.20 R1
HD Now has to hold 52.20
LEN Has to hold 29.80
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ONXX Not oversold-has positive pivots. 71.60 max risk. Has room if good
Phase Change: BA OR reversal today-great entry. Now, 73.97 should hold MOS Inside day. Has to cross 58.21 hold today lowSYK Now want to see it clear 53.24 and hold 52.70 ADSK Confirmed accumulation phase provided 35.20 holds HCA Unconfirmed phase change to bullish with inside day. Max risk 26.68. Positive pivots
Shorts: Not seeing much
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
LVS Inside day after 3 days up. Should not clear41.19 and break 39.65
ORLY Inside day. Cannot clear 87.62 or could be a buy. Otherwise, under 86.29 breaks S1.
Bye for now!