Seeing a lot of oversold indications on the 2-Day RSIs as NASDAQ (QQQ) and Midcaps (IWM) as both indices fill gaps to negate an island bottom whilst S & P 500 (SPY) did not. Volume was lighter than yesterday's. The market is also about midpoint from the 11/25 low and 12/07 high. The financial sector (XLF) held up remarkably well. The metals (GLD and SLV) sharply declined.
SPY: 121.00 is the top of the candle from 11/29 before the gap higher on 11/30. Today's low 121.47. 123.00 is resistance and under today's low 119 next support.
QQQ: 55.60 resistance as we confirm back into a distribution phase. But I certainly would not rule out a rally as we end the week nor would I rule out a further drop to 54.00. If that sounds uncertain, yeah it is.
IWM: Today's high corresponds with the upwardly sloping 50 DMA so if clears, nothing would surprise me. Otherwise, we got a return to a weak bear phase with next support 69.00.
ETFs:
GLD Oversold. Watch the 200 DMA.
XRT* (Retail) Closed on the 200 DMA and did not change the phase from bullish-so calling it best one to watch if market firms for buy opportunities.
XLF (Financials) Incredulously watched the 12.45 low from Tuesday and now today hold. Equally incredulous is that an island bottom still exists. A move over 12.80 will bring in buyers. A break of 12.45 and 12.25 will be touched quickly.
Longs: Either still in a Condition 1-4 or oversold and holding a clear point of support as risk. I would consider a swing trade in ETF like XRT, XLF or SPY if they setup.
KLAC 45.40 is the 50 DMA and max risk after 3 days under the FTP at 46.37 with R1 and today's high to clear 46.99. The 10 DMA is overhead at 47.88 but less concerning since neutral slope. Tried 3 times to clear 49.40 which means next time, if market recovers, could see move to 51.50 with 2011 high 51.83. Day to Short-term Swing
COH Landed right near the 200 DMA at 58.65 for max risk if holds. Not quite oversold but close. R1 is just above today's high 60.05 which must clear. Then resistance at 61.70 area then 64.00. Day to Mini
V Not beat up which means further correction in store if market weakens more, or a good one to buy if the reverse happens. Only willing to risk the FTP at 96.00 since the 50 DMA is further away at 93.00. Otherwise, over R1 97.07, all time high 98.60 with 100 a reasonable target. Day to Mini
X Held the 50 DMA which means max risk is 25.15 and must clear today's high 26.09 at which point would buy ½ position until it takes out the 10 DMA overhead at 27.45. Day to Short-Term Swing.
Honorable Mention:
Must Clear R1: IBM (190.00 NR 8) CPX (32.44 OS Risk 200 DMA 30.85) SHW (84.29 Risk 82.67) CL (90.10 risk 89.13) UA (75.23 Risk 72.10 the 200 DMA) RHT (47.13 Risk 200 DMA 43.85)
4 or more days under the FTP and still holding key moving average. Need to clear R1: EL (Risk 105.17 R1 107.08) AGP (Inside day 53.82 Risk 52.00 the 50 DMA) RRC (Oversold 60.93 the 200 DMA 59.80)
Shorts: So many oversold not as easy to control risk.
FISV Has to break the 50 DMA at 57.08 and confirm by also breaking S1 56.96. Then, should not clear today's high 57.75 or ideally the negative stacked FTP at 57.36. Support 54.00 then 50.00. Day to Short-Term Swing
TWC Never really broke S1 now at 61.68 and FTP negative at 62.07 with R1 and today's high 62.47, a good risk. Could see 57.00 and perhaps the 200 DMA at 48.00. Day to Short-term Swing
DRI Negative Pivots at 43.18 with today's high 43.66 a good risk. Then could see a drop to 40.00 then 38.50. Day to Short-Term Swing
NTAP Negative Pivots at 37.25 and cannot clear today's high 37.89 then if breaks low 36.55 then could see 34.75 then 32.00. Day to Short Term Swing
JPM Negative Pivots at 31.43 and cannot clear today's high 31.94 or could be an interesting 2 day bottom since held previous day low. If breaks 30.83, then see 29.80 then fills gap to 29.13. After that, if market is weak, 2011 low 27.85. Day to Short-Term Swing
Honorable Mention: OR high Failure against R1 CTSH (66.13) GD (63.60) SYK (47.14)