What truly amazes me is where the S & P 500 (SPY) ended. After the 10th biggest winning week since 1950, you'd think there would be some clarity. But NO! S &P had to close with a crap shoot chart. Roll green and it clears the 200 DMA. Roll red and this was a great run to major overhead resistance into the top of a 2 month range high.
SPY: Still working off of an island bottom but failed to cross the weekly moving and the 200 daily moving averages. Has cleared the monthly. Technically, SPY closed down on the day with a distribution day in volume. Let's just say, short term momentum traders hunt, strike and eat their spoils after a day or two at most. That's as far out as one can go right now. Subs-pivots are positive at 125.37 which is why we went home very lightly long. S1 124.25.
QQQ: The 200 DMA at 56.30 held and this chart looks better than the others, but also stopped at the September 20th high 57.35 (the fateful day before Operation Twist dump). Will look for decisive action really soon-either good volume, up day and clearing the 200 DMA once and for all, or a trip back to 55.00 and we'll see.
IWM: To my eyes, it's all about the midcaps which remain a concern because although there is an island bottom, the volume patterns are unimpressive and it is still fairly far away from the 200 DMA. At is point, 77.00 is Emerald City and 71.75 must hold.
ETFs:
GLD has not had decent volume since November 21st when it was down alot. The 50 DMA has neutralized in slope. Over 170.60 with some volume good looks good and under 168.60 not so much.
SLV (Silver) On the 30 minute chart, see a double top at 32.50 unless that clears. Got a distribution day in volume and bearish engulfing pattern.
XRT (Retail) Top of the recent range but overbought on daily RSI, not weekly or monthly. 51.00 was where it pounced from. Like to see that hold
SMH (Semiconductors) A mirror image of SPY. 30.75 the weekly moving average to clear, then the 200 DMA. 29.50 has to hold.
XLF (Financials) 12.80 pivotal. 12.60 support. 13.48 Resistance.
XLE (Energy) Getting the sideways action off the 200 DMA like I asked for. Was the sector/group I began last week watching and makes sense to be the first one to watch again on Monday. Subs-It's either blast through the 200 DMA soon or hello 68.10. After 2 days under the FTP, has to clear R1 71.20.
IBB (Biotechnology) The only group to make new swing highs last week after the late July rally. Even though Friday kept it above the all of the work since then, a correction to 99.50 support is not out of the question. Then we will see what this leading group is made out of. Subs-Negative pivots at 102.25 and must clear R1 102.86.
Longs: Sticking mainly to Condition 1 Nuggets with 2 days under the floor trader pivots and super tight risk Many 30 minute charts have double tops from last Wednesday and Friday's highs. Ultimately, those tops have to clear. We went home very lightly long with 1 short (MOS) after booking big gains in many of last week's picks. New Subs: Please sign up for Twitter @mmmprem
EOG An inside day and negative pivots which means must clear R1 103.62 with good risk to S1 101.74. Could see move to 111 if market stays firm. Day to Short-term Swing (Same sector/group-HCP R1 38.27 S1 37.35 and RRC R1 71.84 S1 69.75)
COG Very close to all time highs and coming in with positive pivots at 87.30 with tight risk at 84.50 for a big stock. Over 90.00 and a good market, could see 105. Day to Short-term Swing
DKS Positive Pivots at 39.64 with S1 39.35 and now a bullish phase. Also needs to clear 40.05 especially on a closing basis then could see 42.25 and possibly 45.25 and beyond since all time high tick 42.97 last May. Day to Swing
SHW 2 days under the FTP negatively stacked at 85.71 so must clear R1 86.51 with max risk to 84.60 the 10 DMA. Near all time highs and not overbought. Could see 89.00 and then another 15-20.00 higher if market stays good. Day to Swing
ONXX (Narrow Range 34) Huge move last Monday, then spent the week consolidating at the top ½ of that bar. Pivots are negative so must clear R1 44.26 with risk to S1 43.55. Then, if resumes rally, has to clear 46.00 to see 60.00. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention:
USB Positive Pivots 25.82 S1 25.49 ALB Must clear R1 54.34 S1 52.60
JAZZ Positive Pivots Must clear today's high 39.95. TSLA (Inside day) Positive pivots 33.14 Risk S1 32.60. WFM* Positive Pivots 68.65 S1 67.97.
NSC Positive Pivots 75.28 S1 74.59. Watch for OR ReversalIBM (Narrow range 61)
Shorts: Only those in bear phases with negative pivots
BAX Negative pivots at 51.82 and bearish engulfing pattern with R1 52.40. Underlying support at 49.75 then recent low 47.69. Day to Swing
IDCC Negative Pivots at 43.65 with R1 44.52. Could see 31.50 then 29.55. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: Must Break S1 SOHU (S1 50.30) AMZN (194.23) GMCR (S1 Friday low 54.43) OR High Failure MOS (R1 52.80) SYK (R1 49.49) CREE R1 25.00.
Have a great Sunday!
