If there is any doubt that the stuff I write about day in and day out is worthwhile-i.e. phases, volume, price patterns, etc. or at the very least worth a follow, just note the improved phase changes, market internals and rotating sectors over the last couple of weeks, all of which we have clearly provided to you here and on twitter. Got the accumulation day in volume in the S&P 500 as resistance and possible digestion especially ahead of the holiday is pretty likely. And NASDAQ cooperated by going back above the 200 DMA.
S&P 500 (SPY)145.56 high from 10/19 now some resistance. 144.55 a good place to hold then back at 143.85 Subs: Not overbought but would be a whole lot harder to chase up here
Russell 2000 (IWM) Friday's inside day was a gift once the highs were taken out on early strength on Monday with great follow through today. Digestion would not be surprising and perhaps a bit welcomed as risk now is high for new entries
Dow (DIA) 137 target with dips on this one, buy opportunities
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. 66.30 area would be real strong sign if holds. The 200 DMA essential support. Subs: AAPL kept a small long to see how it plays out. QQQ should have more so would love a reversal
ETFs:
GLD Some move to the 200 DMA-now typical action would be an inside day tomorrow to digest
XLF (Financials) All about 16.39 support now. Does seem we could see a move to 17.20 at some point.
IBB (Biotechnology) Don't see this as a big winner for 2013
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 33.30, 34.00 next stop
XRT (Retail) Broke a trendline but into some resistance so expect some digestion here
IYT (Transportation) I have been chanting "Transports, Transports" for a long time now. Now a bit overbought
IYR (Real Estate) Ran to the top of a channel on the close. Will look for this to back off so it can get some more of a running start. The end of day rally seemed forced.
GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners) Under 45.22 could get more downside
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: 32.34 is the 50 DMA to watch for a break or failure of
XLE (Energy) Dips will be welcomed
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The other chant of mine-the bond bubble is upon us. Subs: If this is good, 62.00 should remain a distant memory
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note**: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GGP A small real estate stock with inside day and clear risk to 19.74 with a move over 20.06 good reason to think 24.50 is possible
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MTZ Now has to clear 24.40 for new 2012 highs and beyond. 23.54 good tight risk
PVH Good intraday consolidation and if holds 111.20 area should see 119 if market stays strong
PHH Had an Opening Range Reversal for a great low risk buy. Now, has to clear 22.01 to keep going
F If 11.70 clears this has a lot more room to go. Now, want to buy a dip around 11.40
CP Inside day. 99.19 is S1 to hold and has to clear R1 100.93
NBL right at the highs but not overbought. 102 a good area to risk against
VAR Began its move today which if takes 72.61 recent highs, should get it going to new highs
CL unconfirmed phase change back to bullish. Has to hold 106.75 level to stay interesting
AGN Got the reversal buy I wrote about. Now, doji day so would not be afraid to buy strength. 92.55 max risk
MSI Began its move and now has to hold 54.60-reversal would be fine
Phase Change: VFC confirmed phase change to warning. 151.75 level has to hold to get me interested CNQR 68.94 has to clear for move to around 72.00 JWN 51.32 is recent low to hold. Then, over 52.67 and could see a nice pop to 54 or better SLB unconfirmed phase change over 50 and 200 DMA. Risk if good is 70.35 the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MJN Has to break S1 which corresponds with today's low
JCP 20.63 good risk and some support at 19.36
WPRT Inside day-follow the range break down
AVB Has to break S1 and today's low and not clear 134.
ESRX Inside day and under S1 could see move to 52.00
Bye for Now!
