The day began with the expected continuation of digestion/correction, but ended with a good amount of buying although, the 10/19 high in S&P 500 still looms as resistance. NASDAQ closed above a key support area and the Russell 2000, continues to lead with new highs quite possible. As 2012 nears a close, new trends begin to emerge for the upcoming year. Many sectors are ripe and ready for a huge uptrend while others have had their day.
S&P 500 (SPY) 145.58 to clear and 144.00 good place to hold. Subs: Pivots positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Was able to hang on to recent move with 86.00 back in site as long as 83.25 area holds.
Dow (DIA) From nasty candle to ok close. Now, has to hold today's low and cross 133.70 Subs: Pivots Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 66.30 held. The 200 DMA essential support. Like to see it clear 66.76 for another leg up. Subs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Possible peak bottom for now. Subs: Possible slingshot low over today's high confirms and oversold-see note on RGLD
XLF (Financials) After a shaky start, closed on new 2012 highs. This is a sign for things to come-good financial sector driving the rest of the economy it seems.
IBB (Biotechnology) Not so interesting a sector anymore
SMH (Semiconductors) Still bullish in this group. Subs: 33.50 gets me in yet again
XRT (Retail) If holds 63.35 level, today will look like a breather only. Subs: Over today's high looks good
IYT (Transportation) Overbought but very strong and great buy on a correction.
IYR (Real Estate) Subs: Held bottom of channel and now 64.50 support to hold
UUP (US Dollar Bull) Seems that the dollar could be next to firm. Subs: 21.60 a slingshot low if takes out 21.67 and holds
GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners) Subs: Possible slingshot low over today's high confirms
USO (US Oil Fund) confirmed phase change to recovery if 32.32 holds. Through 33.11 clears recent resistance
OIH (Oil Services) Looks better over 40.00
XLE (Energy) Through 73.40 looks good
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note**: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
VAR has negative pivots although closed above. Above today's high breaks the 10 DMA with a risk to 70.87 S1. Could see 75 and beyond.
SLAB Resting on the 10 DMA with great risk to under today's low if it can clear R1 42.81
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PVH Held the 10 DMA at 110.70 area. With negative pivots needs to clear 113.52 to see 119 or better if market stays strong
F New 2012 highs in the cards which means look for dips to control risk
USG Made new 2012 high today. 28.20 should hold
MSI 54.00 now good place to hold as prospect for this is good as we go into 2013.
MON has to clear 93.00 for new leg up and hold around 92.00
WHR 2 inside days. Bought a starter position on the opening range reversal and will add over R1 to see a possible move to 109 and beyond. Risk swing under 10 DMA
NBL Had an OR breakout close to recent highs 103.08. 105.46 is the 2012 high. Swing risk to today's low.
WBC Low volume breakout so now watch for OR reversal
DISH a rare asterisked recommendation and great buy. Now, improved in condition with 36.40 new level of support
WYNN Inside day. Consolidating with a move over 116 taking out the slingshot high from 11/2. Risk for swing is the 10 DMA. Closer risk is today's low
AMZN 264.11 the 2012 high. Issue is risk. Try to see if an OR reversal gets you closer to S1 as risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change: JWN Held on to ½ and sat through the hold of 51.32. Now, back over 52.47 would add or get long again. NVDA 12.80 is a key area to break and 12.50 good place to hold JBHT If clears today's high and holds today's low, still looks good SHW Possible phase change to bullish. 150 is a good risk. OR reversal or strength is fine. OII If holds today's low, and crosses 54.00 could be showing a basing action going back to October. RGLD Slingshot possible on the 200 DMA which means clear risk to today's low if confirms over today's high UNH Unconfirmed phase change to recovery and right against the 200 DMA. 55.00 should hold
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FSLR Inside day and made a huge move with max resistance 33.38. Like more for a correction to 25-26 area.
RRC Closed under the 200 DMA confirming a distribution phase making 63.70
CXO 82.17 good risk
BIG Risk is 28.38 R1
IACI Inside day. Needs to break S1 46.18
FRAN OR high failure preferred against R1 27.33
Bye for Now!
