Large gap down after the vote delay on Boehner's Plan B or what many are calling Merry Cliffness! Then, some buying came in. I will venture to say that the worst of the news is in the market now, meaning that Friday's lows could be it for the remainder of the year and possibly as 2013 begins. Monday is ½ day and would expect a very quiet session until after Christmas. Happy Holidays to all!
Subs: Monday will do an end of day video in lieu of a new evening watch and midday video
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the 50 DMA and would expect it to continue to hold. Now, through 143.30 then 144, will be like Friday never happened. Otherwise, 141.75 is huge. Subs: Pivots Negative. R1 and Friday's high line up.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held onto the fast moving average and closed well all things considered, keeping its place as a leader. Like to see 83.40 area hold as we start the week. Subs: Pivots Negative
Dow (DIA) Touched down on the 50 DMA and held making 131 important. In fact, if that cannot hold, would consider that an ominous sign. Otherwise, over 132.20 good sign. Subs: Pivots Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 64.40 is ultimate support. Under the 200 and 50 DMA as of Friday's close. Through Friday's high will look to see what happens at the 200 DMA. Subs: Pivots Negative
ETFs:
GLD Through 160.90, have some resistance at the 200 DMA but filling last week's gap, good for the yellow metal.
SLV Inside day. Subs: Over 29.33 could see move to fill overhead gap
XLF (Financials) Last week wrote that 16.30 was good support and a new buy opportunity. Friday's low 16.29. 16.44 old 2012 high and now a good place to rise above into next week.
IBB (Biotechnology) Held the 50 DMA so in spite of this not being my favorite sector for 2013, it could be more range-bound then negative
SMH (Semiconductors) If Friday's low holds, back looking for 34.00 and beyond
XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed phase change to warning. 61.00 the 200 DMA support and over Friday high gets back over the 50 DMA.
IYT (Transportation) Friday was a buy opportunity as this continues to look like a hot sector for 2013.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. Subs: 64.85 is the high to get through
UUP (US Dollar Bull) Dollar may have seen a bottom Subs: 21.60 a slingshot low. Now needs to clear 21.78
GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners) Subs: Confirmed slingshot with overhead resistance at the 200 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund) 32.00 support and through 32.50 looks good
XLE (Energy) Friday's range although not an inside day, is place between 2 moving averages and worth following the way it breaks
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Unless TLTs get back over the 200 DMA, still looking at chance of rates rising.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note**: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Some of these picks are for beyond Monday as we begin to explore bullish and bearish favorites for 2013 as well-will denote with an *. A more detailed list will be produced next week.
Category 1: N/A
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NOTE: Many of these have negative pivots for Monday-that means if open above pivots ok, if not-will wait for any long entry
MSI* Held 54.00 now good place to hold as prospect for this is good as we go into 2013.
HP 55.35 the 10 DMA max risk and over Friday high could see resumption of recent rally
MON* has to clear 93.00 for new leg up and hold around 92.00
WHR* Like over 102.78 to see a possible move to 109 and beyond. Risk swing under 99.00 for swing
WPI closed on new all-time highs. Now has to hold 89.00
NBL recent highs 103.08. 105.46 is the 2012 high. Swing risk to 107.00
WYNN 112 good risk and watch for a move above 114. Over 116 taking out the slingshot high from 11/2.
WYN Inside day. Follow range break up and should hold 53.00
CP Inside day. 99.57 Thursday low is max risk. Made new all-time highs last week
HOG Phase change, golden cross. Held the 10 DMA with Friday low best risk. Looks better over 49.00
DE* As long as it hold 84.998 or the 50 DMA, over R1, looks good although still has a slingshot high at 87.50 which has to clear
SHW Inside day. Phase change to bullish. 150 is a good risk
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change: JWN* Basing out and liking this as long as 51.32 holds. OII* If holds Friday's low, and crosses 54.00 could be showing a basing action going back to October. RGLD Slingshot confirmed on 200 DMA which means clear risk to Thursday's low UNH* confirmed phase change to recovery and right against the 200 DMA. 55.00 should hold P* Like to see Friday low hold and clear 9.22 VFC* Hanging onto the 200 DMA . 148.30 good risk now and like to see Friday high clear BEAM* If holds Friday low and takes out 62.00 could see good follow through up. POT* Tested and held the 50 DMA. Has to hold Friday low and clear the high
Shorts: Not seeing a lot of great short setups into Monday
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MJN Good risk is to 66.00 area as overall chart is still heavy
DG Risk is Friday's high and needs to break S1
FSLR Look for an OR high failure. Like more for a correction to 25-26 area.
Bye for Now!
