I have a neck brace on from market whiplash! My phase indicator is like a rainbow of bullish, warning and bear (green, yellow and red). So, if you feel like you're at a busy intersection and not sure if the light is going to turn green for you to cross safely or stay red, keeping you on the sidewalk-welcome to the grand finale!
S&P 500 (SPY) Long wicked candle after it bounced off of the lows more than a bit shy of the 200 DMA, but still closed with an unconfirmed warning phase. Subs: 3 days under pivots which means unless if holds 141.20, gets back above the 50 DMA 141.60 and takes out R1 142.47, still defensive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Ditto to SPY only with one big difference-holding the bullish phase. If crosses over 83.60 looks a lot better
Dow (DIA) Broke the 200 DMA but closed above, again with a long wicked candle. Similarly to SPY, under the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change to warning.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ Filled the gap to 64.02 and then some, but came back to close above Wednesday's low, however, still red. AAPL managed to defend recent lows and close green. 520 is big overhead resistance ad if trading with the phase, one still has to look for a short opportunity
ETFs:
GLD Tried, but closed just shy of the 200 DMA Subs: Pivots negative tomorrow if rolls over again
XLF (Financials) Still in the best shape. But, until it crosses 16.44 aside
SMH (Semiconductors) Held the 50 DMA for now. Needs some work though to restore confidence
XRT (Retail) Took out the 200 DMA and closed above. Would be exciting, but the volume was not that big. Subs: More important is what happens from here. Over 61.60 better, under 61.00 not oversold so has room to downside
IYT (Transportation) Still a favorite group but seems more of a dip is in store for the buy opportunity
IYR (Real Estate) Also in decent shape as its still in a bull phase. Over 64.88 will be compelling
XLE (Energy) Broke and closed above 71.00 a key support level. If holds, has to clear 71.50.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 61.85 pivotal.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Subs: Sitting long with stop under 21.60
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Note: Keeping list light for active trades-and am preparing an extensive report of setups to watch for 2013 which you will have by the end of the year.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ASH Over today's high clears R1 with risk 79.25 level good risk
TSO Has to hold 43.30 and clear 44.09
GS If holds 126.50 and clears R1 128.45 healthy
SWC Narrow range day with 3 days under pivots. Today's low max risk. Over R1 12.51 looks good
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MUR Touched down on the 50 DMA and held. R1 and today's high line up
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NTGR Slightly negative pivots but wall of support at today's low. Over 39.30 could see move to 43.44 the 2012 highs
TCO Held up well with risk 77.78 and move over R1 79.31 good
MSI Over 55.00 looks poised
WBC slightly negative pivots. If can hold 62.24 the 10 DMA still looks good
COG One of the few inside days. Today's low holds the 10 DMA. Could see move to 53-54.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GILD Not really oversold anymore but held the 50 DMA at 71.73. New risk now is 72.00
Phase Change: CLF confirmed phase change to recovery but with a negative slope on the 50 DMA. Over 36.63 looks good MOS Will wait for this to clear 56.50 RGLD If long, holding slingshot but go to a no loss stop for end of year POT confirmed recovery phase with positive pivots. If today's low holds, 40.50 next hurdle BXP 105 key support to hold. OIS Unconfirmed recovery phase today's low max risk. VFC over 150.60 interesting if holds149.80 the 200 DMA FCS Small semiconductor with today's high and R1 lining up, risk 14.00
Shorts: Not much right now
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SINA Inside day after a big up day. Trend is down so look for a low risk against today's high entry
Bye for Now!
