Inside day to end the week just shy of an improved phase change to bullish in S&P 500. Inside day in Russell 2000 which confirmed the bullish phase. NASDAQ confirms the warning phase, again with an inside day and the DOW the same. Add that up, the week indicates that the market has confidence in not only a fiscal cliff resolution as all phases improve, but also that the inside days ending the week leave investors nimble enough in case things go terribly wrong.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.51 clears the 50 DMA and last week's high. Otherwise, 141.40 support to hold then 141.00. Subs: Slightly positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Technically broke its 9 day up streak if you count the slightly negative close as a reversal. What's more important is that it held the 50 DMA and worked off the overbought daily RSI. So, that's basically it-the way it breaks on Monday should help to set the tone for the day and possibly the week. Subs: Pivots Neutral
Dow (DIA) 129.75 line in the sand especially after the inside day. Subs: Pivots Slightly Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 66.28 the overhead 50 DMA resistance as we will watch to see if this does indeed clear or if it can hold the 200 DMA at 65.50. Subs: AAPL, could be setting up as a short if can't get going over 590.
ETFs:
GLD 3 distribution days in volume last week indicating that the failure is most likely still in play. 165.38 last week's low with a break good reason to look at 165.50 next support.
SLV Sitting on the 50 DMA which has to hold to maintain the better phase.
XLF (Financials) Inside day with a range now 15.70 to hold and 15.85 to clear.
IBB (Biotechnology) Bearish engulfing on the 50 DMA. An inflection point
SMH (Semiconductors) closed the week above 32.00 and with an inside day. Subs: Over 32.43 and the prediction of a strong SMH into 2013 looks more likely
XRT (Retail) DOJI day and seems like it could be just resting. Subs: Look for an entry over R1.
IYT (Transportation). Broke back down under the 200 DMA but unless that follows through, could be a healthy rest and nothing more. Subs: Will look to price long term options for 2013 as I am still thinking this will have a good year.
IYR (Real Estate) Cleared the 200 DMA for an improved phase change. Subs: I also like this especially over the 50 DMA
XLI (Industrial Spdr Fund) Subs: Inside day and another one that could see a bullish 2013.
XLE (Energy) Subs: On the subject of channels, held the bottom. Now want to see follow through
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Over 60.92 good
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Good time to keep eyes on the beta of the market as many stocks have been changing phases with little follow through once they do.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ASML Inside day after recently new highs. Has to hold 61.92 and or Friday low and clear 63.05
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Slingshot high possible in F
TROW Had an unconfirmed phase change and improved to a condition 1. 64.27 has to hold.
BAC Inside day. Really has to clear 9.97
TEX Inside day, improved in condition. Has to clear 24.50 to keep going
CBS Prefer a reversal but worth watching for a move above Friday's high.
WYNN Inside day and like the risk to the LOD on Friday.
TRW Inside day with tight risk to Friday low ad room to 60.00
GILD Slightly negative pivots inside day. Has to hold 74.55 and get through 75.87 see new highs
HFC Inside day and has to clear 45.80
URI Still needs follow through with slightly negative pivots and Friday's low max risk
GRA Inside day and now watching for recent highs 66.25 and the beyond.
WAT Through 84.76 should continue with risk 84.00
Phase Change: BIDU now has to hold 95.40 after an inside day VRTX: Inside day holding the slingshot with risk 39.50 SPG Should IYR get going, this had confirmed phase change to warning. 151.30 level is the 200 DMA and has to clear 153.00 MBI Potential bottom fish as it cleared back over the 200 weekly moving average and ended with 2 inside days. 8.76 is a good risk SYK Phase change with converging moving averages. Max risk Friday low has to clear pivots
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
HAIN Cannot clear 61.29
JOY Cannot clear Friday high which lines up with R1
MJN 69.40 the overhead 50 DMA resistance
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
BHI Overbought and at the 50 DMA making max risk Friday high. Has to break S1
FFIV Has to break S1 and then stay under 94.00
Bye for Now!
