Does the market need AAPL? Maybe, best answer. Although S&P 500 had a range expansion and good day, it still failed to cross above the 50 DMA for a positive phase change. Russell 2000 held the 50 DMA once again, but closed red. The Dow, closed back above the 200 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change and NASDAQ (most impacted) closed in an unconfirmed distribution phase (worse than where it was in the prior session). Best hope is that either DIA or SPY carries us up or Wednesday's session was a one day wonder.
S&P 500 (SPY) Accumulation day in volume, but as mentioned, until it clears and closes above the 50 DMA, keep nimble on longs Subs: Slightly positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed weak which means 81.62 now support. Could go to fill gap 81.31 but for health of market would prefer it does not. Subs: Pivots Slightly Negative
Dow (DIA) Back above the 200 DMA and now short-term resistance to clear at 130.80 with the ever important 200 DMA support to hold Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Naturally, a distribution day in volume as this deteriorated in phase and now looking a bit oversold with next support the last swing low 64.25 Subs: AAPL, 531.50 a place to consider for support with 555 now resistance
ETFs:
GLD Support at 163.50 was tested but held.
SLV More inclined to look here if gets back over 32.00
XLF (Financials) Closed right at 15.85 making that a key area to hold for a confirmation that today's move was real
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the 50 DMA at 138 which could be a good sign if continues
SMH (Semiconductors) Began the week under 32.00 or the 65-weekly moving average. Like to see it end the week over that level Subs: Over 32.43 and the prediction of a strong SMH into 2013 looks more likely. Til then, out of its way
XRT (Retail) It could be just resting, but better wake up soon or at least hold the 50 DMA
IYT (Transportation) Subs: Testing the 200 DMA with support at 90.30
IYR (Real Estate) Got to the 200 DMA and held. Needs to continue to do so
XLI (Industrial Spdr Fund) 37.40 needs to clear
OIH (Oil Services) Death cross last week but with a positive close Subs: Waiting for a rollover to short
XLE (Energy) Subs: still has not cleared the channel on a closing basis
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Really want to see 60.40 clear to get excited about the market
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ULTA 2 day correction after gap post earnings. 99.70 good risk
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CRM If holds around 155.75 and can clear R1 like for a move to 165
WCC 3 days under pivots but held the 50 DMA. Over R1 corresponds with today's high and the 10 DMA.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TRMB Today was the move and I tweeted as such plus featured on the video. Closed on new 2012 high. 55.50 level new risk
TEX Had a reversal. Now, 24.50 has to hold
SIG Compressing with a close under pivots but positive stack. 53.40 support and should get passed 54.50
REGN 182.00 has to hold for more upside
TRW After it made new 2012 highs, had an OR Reversal. Has to hold 51.00 level
UNP 121.60 is one risk, also, 122.15. Want to see it clear 124.05
CELG Until it clears 80.00 will be volatile.(Has slightly negative pivots)
SLAB Over 42.00 looks good with support and risk today's low after an inside day
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SHW oversold daily RSI and held key support at the 50 DMA. 150 has to hold and clears R1 over today's high
Phase Change: JNJ Confirmed bullish phase inside day. Max risk 69.45 EL A OR reversal good close. Has to clear 60.00 CHRW 62.15 next number to clear and a reversal trade would be good against 61.30 AGCO unconfirmed phase change to bullish. Key support is today's low. FDX Converging moving averages and unconfirmed phase change-actually 2 phases, over the 50 and 200 DMAs. 88 key support to hold-over 90.00 looks good TSLA 2 inside days and correction from recent move. 33.20 max risk
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AGU 101.30 good resistance and see daily chart heavy.
MTH Prefer short on a OR high failure against 35.70 area to control risk
BSFT Not big volume but big ATR. Also prefer although not necessary and OR high failure against R1
HOT Should not clear 53.46
MCD 6 days above pivots then closed red. 87.72 good max risk
TWC Cannot clear 95.60. Looks like it could drop to the 200 DMA at some point
Bye for Now!
