Inside day in all the indexes except NASDAQ only because it took out prior day low by 2 cents. The technical picture is exciting. With the indexes slowly but surely improving phases (S&P 500 went to an unconfirmed bullish phase), and given the inside days, Friday can turn out to be the deciding factor day as to up or down; and either way-big!
S&P 500 (SPY) The downside risk is that the 50 DMA remains in a negative slope and the price needs to clear it more convincingly. The upside potential is that it does and runs up to early November resistance. Subs: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Dancing on the 50 DMA. Has to get above 82.80 to make the 50 DMA a distant memory Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Short-term resistance to clear at 130.80 with the ever important 200 DMA support to hold Subs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Talk about an inflection area-over the 200 DMA party time and one more failure and down she goes. Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD If holds 164.50, 166 next resistance
SLV More inclined to look here if gets back over 32.00 and holds
XLF (Financials) Like the inside day over the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Broke the 50 DMA at 138 with support to hold 136.50
SMH (Semiconductors) Nice move back over 32.00 with the 200 DMA within its grasp
XRT (Retail) Inside day and a definite follow the way the range breaks setup.
IYT (Transportation) Inside day
IYR (Real Estate) Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish
XLI (Industrial Spdr Fund) Inside day and 37.40 needs to clear
OIH (Oil Services) Death cross last week with a move under 38.50 making it vulnerable
XLE (Energy) Subs: Finally cleared the channel on a closing basis with an inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Really want to see 60.25 clear
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note**: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SJM Like the 3 days correction on the 10 DMA, now has to hold. Then, R1 and today' high line up.
VAR 2 day correction on the 10 DMA which has to hold. Today's high and R1 line up
WPI Inside day with 87.15 max risk and today's high and R1 line up
RGR Inside day and improved in condition. Risk tight under 52.16
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WCC Inside day with 4 days under pivots. Over R1 corresponds with today's high and the 10 DMA.
ANF Inside day with 4 days under pivots. 44.79 max risk and today's high lines up with R1
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
SIG Slightly negative pivots but compressing. 53.60 support and should get passed 54.50
TRW Inside day. The 10 DMA should hold
AMT Improved to condition 1 and today's low tight risk
UNP 122.12 good risk. Want to see it clear 124.05
SLAB Over 42.00 looks good with support and risk today's low after an inside day
SHW Inside day. 150 has to hold and clear yesterday high to continue
CRM If holds 155.11 and clear 158.75 see 165 possible.
MPC Inside day and back over the 10 DMA. 58.90 nearest support. Over 59.91 clears a lot
JBHT Inside day after touching the 50 DMA yesterday. R1 and today's high line up.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BEN Today's low touched the 50 DMA now max risk.
Phase Change: JNJ Max risk 69.77 EL Has to clear 60.00 AGCO Key support is today's low. FDX Inside day. Converging moving averages and confirmed recovery phase change but not bullish. Risk today' s low. PNRA*Slingshot and an unconfirmed phase change. Plus, they make a great babka at the holidays! 156.90 is the 200 DMA and R1 is 158.03. For swing, risk under today's low DECK 2 inside days and poised in the recovery phase. Max risk 40.55
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
XEC Unconfirmed bear phase. 60.61 R1 good risk
AGU 101.24 good resistance and see daily chart heavy.
MTH Should not get above 35.76
TWC Inside day. Cannot clear 94.70. Looks like it could drop to the 200 DMA at some point
JOY Inside day. 56.93 max risk. Still looks vulnerable
PRGO OR high failure preferred with risk against 103.98. However, looks vulnerable
OXY Cannot cross over 74.91 Inside day.
PNC Vulnerable chart with max risk today's high
Bye for Now!
