Quiet session with divergence as all but the DOW close green and only marginally at that. S&P did not close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range after making new highs; nor did NASDAQ or the Russells. In fact, Russells closed near new highs! Market felt like it was nursing a hangover after the State of the Union Address. Really, I have no idea what that means, but this was definitely a day the market seemed to be sleeping something off. Internals remain strong, trend intact-and true to form-dips buy opportunities. Happy Valentine's Day!
S&P 500 (SPY) 151.20 area is big support Subs: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) As the indexes fluctuate and look extended, many stocks continue to set up. This index is hard to buy up here, but sure a healthy sign regardless Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Ping pong match with the fast moving average the table it's bouncing off of.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The anomaly of the 2013 rally. Bullish phase. Lots of room. 67.63 was gap low from 02/08 to hold. Subs: Pivots Positive. The day this gets going, I want to be in it
GLD Holding the December low so far
XLF (Financials) Looking like even with its starts and stops, on the way to 19.95 area
IBB (Biotechnology) Now, even more convinced this could still run up, but this sector had its year last year. Subs: Cleared the 10 DMA today
SMH (Semiconductors): 36.17 the 2012 high
XRT (Retail) Held Tuesday low on the close after breaking it. Not certain if this means renewed strength, but tomorrow should elucidate
IYT (Transportation) Subs: I believe this has more to go this year. Looking for a low risk entry
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Defended 35.08, but now, buying strength seems like a better trade
OIH (Oil Services) Returned over the fast moving average Subs: Long for swing if holds today's low
XLE (Energy) New highs Subs: Wanted to follow this long over 78.60. But action was choppy. Looks good and now watch for reversal
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The last 8 trading days have all been within the range of the big trading range made on February 1st. Subs: Over 69.15 will follow
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Inside day. Like 59 to hold and will get long over Tuesday's high
UUP (Dollar Bull) Tested the 50 DMA. Interesting to see if it can hold now at today's low for a possible bottom. Inside day Subs: will watch this one
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
FDX* 3 shooting stars which means over today's high could still see more upside with risk 105
AGN After falling beneath the 10 DMA, S1 and S2, came back end of day to close above all those points. Took a starter long with now risk to under today's low. Will add over R1
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
PRU Has to hold today's low and clear 57.75 the 10 DMA
SWK* Inside day. Would follow the move up over Tuesday high looking for new highs with risk to 76.85
WHR* Narrow range day and if holds today's low, watch this one for move back up to at least 115.
HOG Over 54.11 could resume move up with 2012 high 54.32 not so far away.
RIG Reports 2/24. Improved in condition. Provided it holds 56.65 could see more upside ahead of earnings
GME Inside day. Over 26.30 takes out R1 and today's high. 2012 high 28.35
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EQT* Over today's high like it with risk to today's low
BSX Over R1 or a correction closer to 7.00 and will buy for a long term hold provided it holds the 200 weekly moving average
Phase Change: NTES Holding the 200 DMA making today's low a good risk. Watch for an OR setup
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AVB 131 is good resistance with a move under today's low could see move down to 128 area
WFM* Should gap lower after earnings. Under 91.45 breaks the 200 DMA and can watch for follow through
CRUS 27.80 is tight risk with 24.80 next big support area
AAPL Under today's low with a doji day breaks the 10 DMA and over today's high could even rally
Bye for Now!
