Yet another quiet session punctuated with some very robust moves in the oil services and energy sectors. S&P 500 continues its drift down, grind up action. Russell 2000 continues its grind to new highs. The Dow continues its sideways bounce and NASDAQ, continues trading within the high end of the January range. As the week draws to an end and a long weekend ensues, figuring a lackluster session as well, although always prepared for anything and everything.
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the support Subs: Positive Negative
Russell 2000 (IWM) This index is hard to buy up here, but sure a healthy sign regardless Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Ping pong match with the fast moving average the table it's bouncing off of. Subs: Pivots Negative
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Bullish phase. Lots of room. 67.63 was gap low from 02/08 to hold. Subs: Pivots Negative The day this gets going, I want to be in it
GLD New lows on this move. If not already short, might want to wait for a move closer to 160 now
XLF (Financials) Looking like even with its starts and stops, on the way to 19.95 area
IBB (Biotechnology) Sideways.
SMH (Semiconductors): 36.17 the 2012 high and just within its reach
XRT (Retail) Tested and held the fast moving average. Subs: Last 4 trading days this had neutral, tight line up of the pivots. Over 68.10 could get interesting-that's R1.
IYT (Transportation) Subs: 105.78 is the 2-day high which if clears see no reason to rule out 110
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: Inside day with 35.53 the number to clear
OIH (Oil Services) If you were long here, you got your Valentine's Day present. Crossing the 80 monthly if stays here by end of February Subs: Took partial profit on swing. Raising stop to under 44.00 on balance
XLE (Energy) Nice run as well with 81.00 next resistance from 2011.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The last 9 trading days have all been within the range of the big trading range made on February 1st. Subs: Would consider a buy if dips closer to 66.45
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Took out the high of the inside day and now should hold today's low. 61.50 is the top of a weekly chart channel
UUP (Dollar Bull) Bottoming formation looking more likely now
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
IGT Could be flagging and took out the 200 weekly moving average last week. Needs to clear R1 and hold 16.14
CMI Broke the 10 DMA and closed above it giving today's low a good risk point. Has to clear R1.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AGN Like to see 107 hold and clear recent highs.
FNSR Inside day. Just cleared the 200 weekly and is approaching the 80 monthly moving average. 15.99 shuld hold and R1 and today's high line up
SWK* Held the 10 and now has to clear recent highs 78.39 to keep going. 77.75 good place to hold now
WHR* Second Narrow range day and if holds today's low, watch this one for move back up to at least 115.
HOG Over R1 53.86 could resume move up with 2012 high 54.32 not so far away.
GME 2 Inside days. Slightly negative pivots so now must today's high. 2012 high 28.35
AIV Just cleared the 80 monthly with a big move on Tuesday. Inside day. Tight risk to today's low
OPEN* Through today's high could see a move to 70.00. 55.00 area should hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EQT* Would only buy now over the 10 DMA
BSX Long now with an inside day, which clears over 7.62 for an add
Phase Change: NTES Holding the 200 DMA 50.74 a good risk. Watch for an OR setup COF Possible slingshot low today provided it clears today's high
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MLNX 54.13 reasonable risk and has to break the 10 DMA at 53.23
Bye for Now!
