S&P 500 followed through after the brick wall highs Wednesday, never really enjoying an intraday rally and closing in the middle of the intraday range. NASDAQ tested and traded around the 50 DMA. The DOW tested Wednesday's low then retreated to close pretty much midrange. 3 out of the 4 indexes remain in a bullish phase albeit with heavy candles near the highs. End of week can bring the unexpected therefore, equally prepare for a run back to 14,000 or another round of selling ahead of the weekend. A correction in a bull phase is that unpredictable.
S&P 500 (SPY) 147.40 is the 50 DMA and a clearance of 151.50 a good sign Subs: Pivots Negative. R1 and today's high line up
Russell 2000 (IWM) Got close to the 89.00 for support level with 91.10 overhead resistance Subs: Pivots Negative and R1 lines up with today's high
Dow (DIA) Held 138 and closed better than the other indexes percentagewise. Subs: Pivots Negative-R1 and today's high line up
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 66.60 a pivotal area Subs: Pivots Negative. Now in a weak unconfirmed warning phase which means over R1 that goes away
GLD Inside day. Not that an impressive bounce
XLF (Financials) 17.30 would be a good place for this to find support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Touched the 50 DMA support. Needs to prove itself on whether it can hold from here, or continue to breakdown to much lower levels
SMH (Semiconductors): I would like to see 34.00 again for a new long opportunity, which is real close to the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Held 67.00 But, like the other sectors, has a lot of repair before one can buy confidently
IYT (Transportation) 102 is underlying support to watch for
IYR (Real Estate) 67.00 is support here
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed distribution phase.
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Will stay aside until we can see whether this holds or fails the 80 monthly moving average by February's end
XLE (Energy) A drop to 75.00 would be a good place to look at for a new long
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The last 13 trading days have all been within the range of the big trading range made on February 1st. Subs: R1 and today's high line up
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Interesting hammer candle closing over the 50 DMA. R1 and today's high line up
XHB (Homebuilders) Unconfirmed weak warning phase
UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OPEN* Held the 10 DMA with today's high and R1 lining up
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MBT Today's high and the 10 DMA line up with 19.80 good support on the daily
AXP Over today's high clears the 10 DMA and R1.
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
Post Earnings: BMRN Could have a breakaway gap if opens above 57.66
SRPT Reports 2/28. 27.34 now max risk and could see move to 29.50 or so before earnings
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BSX DOJI candle and holding the 7.05 gap low. R1 and today's high line up
LVS Oversold. 27.99 is the gap low from 01/02. Slope on the overhead 50 DMA positive and R1 and today's high line up
DO* Touched down on the 50 DMA with R1 and today's high lining up
Phase Change: DLR Inside day, still working the slingshot. 65.27 max risk. Through 65.30 could see 68.00 YELP If 21.50 holds, returned over the 200 DMA and could see recent highs but has to clear them AFL* Still working the slingshot low but needs to get back over 50.00 NTES 50.81 the 200 DMA ACT Had a potential glass ceiling bottom if clears R1 and today's high Note: AAPL oversold and R1 lines up with today's high
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MLNX Failed the 50 DMA with good stop over 52.55 and support at 50.00
IACI* Should not clear 41.93
TDC 61.93 max risk with support at 60.00
Bye for Now!
