What boat were you sailing on? The one heading to a recovery phase in GLD (gold)? Or, the one that the Vikings could have called “Homebuilders”? Maybe, you cruised on the stink pot called Natural Gas? How about the high Technology boat? You also could have taken a trip on Jet Blue or Delta Airlines. Regardless, the money flowed in several directions, although in US dollars, you got less value for that money. Curious that rates firmed a bit as well, leaving a possible reversal candle in the ultrashort TBTs. However, thanks to Amazon, we can all hop a train (Railroads ran this week), a plane and an automobile (Ford rocked) to our yachts, smoke our e-cigarettes (Lorillard on new highs) and shop online using our AAPL 4G servers! Life’s good on the Street.
S&P 500 (SPY) Volume has slacked off some this week but this market seems to want new highs. It’s been a week defending the gap lows from last Friday-seems for real. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices
Russell 2000 (IWM) 109.83 is last Friday’s low. We’re seeing that now in the rear view mirror
Dow (DIA) 153.33 is the fast moving average support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) 82.90 daily chart high which was the bid in the aftermarket
XLF (Financials) Like to see this clear 20.88-to negate the topping candle
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day and not exactly wowing me here
XRT (Retail) Negated that topping candle looking a lot better
IYT (Transportation) Parabolic
IBB (Biotechnology) Let sleeping giants lie.
IYR (Real Estate) A gap over the 200 DMA would be interesting.
XHB (Homebuilders) Subscribers: Took 2nd profit and holding on as long as the moving averages hold
GLD Unconfirmed phase change to recovery Subscribers: SLV not expecting fireworks here, but holding the 50 DMA
USO (US Oil Fund)Possible reversal candle Subscribers: Confirmation of a slingshot will be a move over 35.16
OIH (Oil Services)Clawed its way back, but not by enough
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Filled the gap from the topping candle and looking like its old self again
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Brick wall possible if holds 72.40.
VXX Subscribers: Still here until S2 and recent lows break
FXI (China) Confirmed distribution phase and oversold-36.19 gap low from September like to see hold
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
P Reports November 18th. If holds today’s low, then R1 and today’s high line up
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TEX Would look for some digestion after the move up and maybe an Opening Range Reversal against S1.
CTSH Reports November 5th. Looks like it is paused with a great risk to 85.93 and needs a move over 87.06 to keep going
GCI If clears 28.09 will be on the road to new highs. Then, will have to hold today’s lows
PRU Reports November 6th. Improved in condition. Conservative risk 80.75 area with potential for new highs
CHK Reports November 6th. Good comeback today. 27.67 good place to hold and over recent highs could see new leg up
INTC inside day. Like over 24.05 which also clears R1 and today’s high
MNST Reports November 6th. Converging moving averages. Like to see today’s hold and take out 58.00
ADSK Reports November 14th. Started its climb, now needs to take out 10 DMA and hold around 39.70
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
GMCR Slingshot low if confirms by first holding 62.50 level and then clearing today’s high
M Reports November 13th. 44.75 area is now support to hold and cold continue its move with 46.00 next resistance
C Like this again after it held the 50 DMA if it can clear R1 which lines up with today’s high
AGO Reports November 7th. Clearing the 200 DMA. 20.50 now support to hold
UAL Converging moving averages with good volume post earnings. Like to see 30.50 area hold and consider 31.30 pivotal. 33.64 is a gap overhead to fill
ACAD Reports November 4th. Unconfirmed phase change to bullish if 23.12 holds. Now, looks poised to clear 25.24 and keep going.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
FFIV Unconfirmed distribution phase if doesn’t cross 86.12 the 200 DMA. Then could see much lower prices.
Bye For Now
