Whereas the Dow took out the recent highs to close on new highs, the S&P 500 had its highest close on April 2nd, so although it crossed that level on an intraday basis, it failed to close on new highs. Furthermore, the Russell 2000 closed down on the day, wedged between two moving averages-the fast and the 50 DMA. Apparently, the small caps even with its great recovery from Friday's big gap lower is a factor with the phase confirmed bullish, the rotation out of small caps into big industrial stocks continues. NASDAQ confirmed its bullish phase and had a good day, but remains below recent resistance. The divergence in the indexes continues to plague many trend traders; however, the daily opportunities in the various sectors and groups makes for some exciting day to short term swing trading opportunities. And, if one steps back, the phases are all bullish so even with divergence, the market is sound.
FSLR rose 45% after yesterday's 2.27% gain. We entered on 04/05 at 26.20 for a gain of over 47% in just 3 days!!
S&P 500 (SPY) Another push above 157 barring an ugly turn of events, should take this higher. 157.52 is the 2007 high. A drop under today's low will start to look like toppy action. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) The 50 DMA is 91.94 and the fast moving average is 93.00-and she sits between the two.
Dow (DIA) All-time highs yet again
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Like to see a second close above 69.00. Confirmed its bullish phase
ETFs:
GLD After the slingshot low and yesterday's inside day if you followed the range break, there was money there. The 50 DMA is overhead as resistance
XLF (Financials) Needs to take out the 2013 high (18.48) and hold 18.10
SMH (Semiconductors) The day this gets over 36.17-look out above!
XRT (Retail) Possible slingshot high after taking out the 70.81 double tops. In other words, a possible key reversal and not in a good way. Needs confirmation
IYT (Transportation) A mirror of the IWM-wedged between the fast and the 50 DMAs Subscribers: Shorter term traders can use a stop under the 50 DMA with a roll down to next reference point if long for a stop
IYR (Real Estate) New highs the last 4 trading days. Now extended, but keeps helping us get long other instruments with more confidence
USO (US Oil Fund) Back over the 200 DMA. Subscribers: Unconfirmed warning phase so a good one to watch for failure or follow through
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: We are back looking at the 80 monthly moving average-43.76. Then, will be watching for the lowest risk entry for a swing
XLE (Energy) Unconfirmed phase change back to bullish
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Great move off of Friday's low but starting to think that if this does not gap higher, the possibility of a correction to short (or buy TLT's) is a possibility.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed return to the bullish phase Subscribers: Some resistance here at 60.00
XHB (Homebuilders) Confirmed return to a bullish phase even with its red day.
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: In futures, its 18.15-18.22 the 200 weekly moving average I am waiting to clear
FXI (China) Subscribers: Took 1.5 ATRs and trailing stop up to see if can clear the 200 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
NOTE: LIFE possible slingshot high
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TIF Good ORR and now has to stay above 71.00 to keep going
AIG Inside day so have to use today's low as risk and see if it can clear 40.00 to keep going
EL 64.50 is a good point to clear next if it holds 64.20
GNC Like on reversal now against S1 or around 40.50
HOT Phase change to confirmed bullish also with an ORR entry today. Now, 63.00-64.00 some resistance to clear to keep going
TROW Confirmed phase change to bullish. Needs to clear 76.00 to keep going and hold today's low
CREE Quite a move after the reversal early on. Would not be surprised to see an inside day, but keep your eyes here as longer term, looks good. All about risk now
BAC Reports April 17th 12.10 should old and if good, has lots of room since over the 200 weekly moving average. DOJI day.
UPS Phase change to bullish unconfirmed. Did better than IYT which means good place to look for some follow through, especially if it holds the 50 DMA 83.30
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
TRIP If holds 48.20, then can look again for a pop over 48.50 then 49.00 to look better
Phase Change: ALXN I still like this if it holds 97.40 and clears today's high which clears the 200 DMA TOL Unconfirmed distribution phase after the slingshot low, so watch for more strength only BEAM 60.50 close risk should this get an OR breakout and cross R1 AAPL Watch this for a breakout over R1 YOKU Confirms glass bottom and candidate for an ORR or breakout over 17.00 SCCO Phase change unconfirmed warning. Risk is today's low JBL 2 inside days so if breaks over 18.25 could be a good swing trade against the recent low 17.85 ATI Unconfirmed phase change to warning. Like a reversal and risk to 30.00
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
WFM 84.75 max risk the 10 DMA and still has more room. Note, the slingshot low to keep an eye on
LULU Ran to the 50 and 200 DMA and closed under-still looking at this if breaks S1
DKS About to get a death cross with max risk today's high and has to break S1
Bye for Now!
