So did Wednesday”s session bring back the warm and fuzzies?
Let’s examine. The S&P 500 cleared the fast moving average after finding support at the 50 DMA-volume light.NASDAQ cleared the fast moving average but not the 50 DMA. That means watch 88.50-again. That is the area to clear and close above.
The Russell 2000s remains the weak link as it did not clear neither the fast nor the 50 DMA, again with light volume. 115.50 is the number here to watch for a cross or failure from.
The Dow, like SPY had held its 50 DMA, cleared the fast moving average with Thursday’s action most likely more defining-up and market will look much better. Down, and this was a rally to resistance.
In the sectors and groups, particularly the Financials, that too has more work to do but at least, gave itself distance from the 50 DMA.
Now that Yellen has shown her willingness to keep monetary policy status quo, I found the red close in the Real Estate sector interesting as well as the TLTs or 20-Year Interest rates firming.
Foreshadowing of a bubble many have been waiting for well over a year? Right now, more of a rumination in my brain, with some light action on that possibility.
S&P 500 (SPY) 186.50 pivotal. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inthis is an environment have to say anything is possible-let the market tell us
Dow (DIA) 163.75 pivotal or the fast moving average
Nasdaq (QQQ) Has overhead to get through or not
XLF (Financials) Held the 50 DMA has to clear 22.15
SMH (Semiconductors) Wednesday low a good place to hold
IYT (Transportation) Worth watching again or as I mentioned early on-anything that held the 50 DMA is worth watching
IBB (Biotechnology) Bounce off the 200 DMA much more comforting
XRT (Retail) Like to see one more push over Wednesday’s high for more warmth
IYR (Real Estate) 68.85 now more critical to clear
GLD I wanted to see this tell us more definitively its next direction-but all it did was have a larger range between 2 major moving averages-
USO (US Oil Fund) Island top negated. Looks very bullish which may not be that good for the market in the long run
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Logic would say this should clear 67.80 or so and form a long awaited bottom
KRE (Regional Banks) Hasn’t broken the phase, but not such a good looking chart right here
EWG (Germany) Europe in general looking good
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: confirmation of the accumulation phase
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Slingshot high? Maybe-will look for confirmation
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Looks pretty good here even near the highs
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: 55.00 has to hold but just bottom picking until this clears 60.00
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Could be forming a new base
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***NOTE: Earnings Season just beginning, Please make sure you check earnings dates on your positions.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
XOM Reports 4/21-4/25 Slightly negative pivots but if today’s low holds, then over 97.85 looks a lot better
NVDA 18.36 is the risk point and over 19.00 clears a lot of resistance
JBLU Reports 4/24 The calendar range high is 9.20-over that risk becomes the 50 DMA
AGO big day clearing the 50 DMA with good long term charts for a move to 26.50 or better. Like to see 24.60 area hold
MBI 13.27 the 50 DMA to hold with a move over today’s high good reason to see 14.90 or so
XRX 2 inside days and a good looking chart for more upside should it clear 11.61.
X Didn’t quite clear 28.80 but if does now, should see more upside, around 30.75 reasonable. Risk 27.70
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ONVO 8.25 now support with 9.15 next overhead resistance
DLR Over 54.66 clears recent resistance and should power away from the 200 DMA-best risk
ASML Great ORR after a gap higher. Now, 91.90 pivotal and over today’s highs still lots of potential
Shorts: Have to wait for new shorts to set up-however, if market rolls over, TWM good place to look
Category 5: Titanic-N/A
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
