Whoomp! (There it Is). New highs in the Dow, S&P 500, neither with any blow-off volume although all had accumulation days (higher volume than the preceding day with a close in the green.) NASDAQ got to 70.00 but still has the 2012 70.58 to contend with. The Russell 2000 has room to get to the 2013 high at 94.96. The Bonds and Gold collapsed, both optimistic signs of an improving US economy. Most logical advice for now is to go with the trend, but keep an eye for any inherent signs of weakness if NASDAQ or the Small Caps roll over.
How have we been doing? Here are some great quotes from a few of you today:
@lzheart Incidentally have 9 long positions on, one of my most profitable trading weeks ever. Your picks are incredible!!!
@CastleStreetCap I think you just have to look at a stock and it makes it want to move! 🙂 Thanks for another great day. Love trading and love learning from such a great teacher. Lots of profit off very controlled risk! 🙂 Like you've taught - wind at your back is when you press it - days like today make for a great P&L.
@tati_ho. All I can say is that you are simply amazing!
S&P 500 (SPY) Best news is that this is not close to overbought. Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) 93.00 is now the support to hold. If it does hold, 2013 highs should be historical as in cleared and now support.
Dow (DIA) All-time highs yet again and again and again.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 69.00 area the major support and 70.58 in its midst.
ETFs:
GLD Got right up to resistance yesterday near 154 before showing what happens in a bear phase today. 150 weekly support which if breaks, not good for the stubborn longs
XLF (Financials) New 2013 highs. 19.50 should be next stop
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs.
SMH (Semiconductors) If 35.00 now holds, the day this gets over 36.17-look out above!
XRT (Retail) Here is why we look for confirmation-the slingshot possibility turned out as a pause before new highs.
IYT (Transportation) Although lagging on this move, still see this as a longer term trend up.
IYR (Real Estate) New highs the last 5 trading days. How did the bears miss this sign 5 days ago?
USO (US Oil Fund) Back over the 200 DMA but under the 50 DMA. The average this breaks should be telling for next decent move.
OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: We are back looking at the 80 monthly moving average-43.76.
XLE (Energy) Confirmed phase change back to bullish. The oil and energy sectors have been moving but with hardly the same fervor-could mean they will play catch up, or provide the best places to look for shorts if market rolls over
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Island bottom possible now-or-the third scenario I wrote about as we started this week.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 now support with an interesting doji day
XHB (Homebuilders) Totally lagged which again means either catch up or good short under the 50 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) Inside day and perhaps the next time, a blast through the 200 weekly moving average.
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: In futures, its 18.15-18.22 the 200 weekly moving average I am waiting to clear
FXI (China) Subscribers: First time try for the 200 DMA and retreated. Have a no loss stop now and will add over the 200 DMA if clears
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
*NOTE: Now that the market has busted out, a lot of the picks are in play and perhaps a bit extended. Very cautious on anything with an RSI over 92 for a new entry.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
EL 64.50 is a good point to hold now and 66.00 the area to clear
HOT 64.00 some resistance to clear to keep going with today's low support to hold
CSC Perhaps a reversal since it is a bit far from the 50 DMA is best, but since clearing the 80 monthly, longer term trend should be intact
MUR Inside day and as long as the 10 DMA holds, could be just a rest today before it continues to new highs.
BAC Reports April 17th 2 shooting stars and lagging. Watch for a no loss on existing long or catch up therefore an add before earnings.
UPS Got through the follow through today. Now, 85.00 next hurdle with potential for new highs if holds 84.00
TRIP Long today and looking to see if can clear 50.00 with next resistance 52.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change: NVDA Ran to the 200 DMA. Looking for a phase change and possible bottom in place for a longer move (we always exit before earnings). MDVN Unconfirmed accumulation phase if holds today's low and the 200 DMA 50.58 ALXN Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. 99.00 and really today's low have to hold. BEAM 61.18 close risk should this get an OR breakout and cross the 50 DMA AAPL Signaled today and not look for a continuation or ORR against the 10 DMA. F and P good to watch for reversals SCCO Phase change confirmed warning. Risk is 35.42 and needs an OR breakout ATI Confirmed phase change to warning. 30.55 support and close to the 50 DMA which as to clear MOS On the 50 DMA the 200 weekly MA and the 80 monthly MA-so about to do something one way or another. Use 60.00 as pivotal OXY Reports April 22nd Has 2 inside days but could really go either way-follow the range break
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TOL Confirmed distribution phase after the slingshot low, so watch for 31.00 to break and 32.10 are as resistance
PSX Weak warning phase with risk today's high to see if can drop to 60 or lower
JOY 58.70 is the swing risk, but can use 57.50 area as well. If breaks under recent lows could see another leg down
SLV Inside day. Had a glass bottom, but came up on our short scanner as a strong contender for a move down. Max risk today's high
Bye for Now!
