As one who always had a penchant for the strong, silent type, today's market filled that bill! Low volume run to another new high in the S&P 500 and Dow (better volume there). NASDAQ still has yet to challenge 2012 high, but got another close on new 2013 highs. The Russell 2000 or small caps, the relative straggler, inched closer to the 2013 highs and crossed and closed over recent resistance. Diversion in the sectors prevailed with Retail, Real Estate the big winners and Transportation, Semiconductors not quite the losers, but clearly the ones that have yet to show similar pizzazz. An amazing week, now close to its conclusion-could see some digestion, uninspiring volume, but don't get too complacent. The market continues to make history.
S&P 500 (SPY) Would be hard to chase now, but sure would not sell any weakness any time soon.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 94.96 the 2013 high on high alert
Dow (DIA) All-time highs yet again and again and again (and again.)
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 70.58 in its midst, especially after an inside day.
ETFs:
GLD Inside day at a very interesting chart point. 150 critical support. Subscribers: The Opening Range High Failure today was a good short entry. Now, watch to see if it breaks 150
XLF (Financials) Another new 2013 highs. 19.50 should be next stop
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs yet again
SMH (Semiconductors) If 35.00 now holds, the day this gets over 36.17-look out above!
XRT (Retail) Crazy strong day. Let's go shopping!
IYT (Transportation) Although lagging on this move, still see this as a longer term trend up. Subscribers: 107.50 the 50 DMA to hold
IYR (Real Estate) New highs the last 6 trading days. Awesome.
USO (US Oil Fund) Broke the 200 DMA but still well in the range of the last week-could really go in either direction from here Subscribers: Could be an interesting day here tomorrow
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed bullish phase Subscribers: We are back looking at the 80 monthly moving average-43.76.
XLE (Energy) Doji day and trying to get up to the 2013 highs-80.14
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Island bottom confirmed. The 200 DMA needs to clear next
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 59.00 is where the moving averages converge. Subscribers: My stop on the longs will be under the 50 DMA on a closing basis
UUP (Dollar Bull) Waiting for this to cross the 200 weekly moving average
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: In futures, its 18.10-18.22 the 200 weekly moving average I am waiting to clear
FXI (China) Subscribers: Have a no loss stop now and will add over the 200 DMA if clears
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
NOTE*: Make sure you begin to track when your instrument might report earnings and exit before!
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MUR Held the 10 DMA making today's low max risk or the 63.00 level. If gets going, would not hesitate to jump in
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HOT 64.00 some resistance to clear to keep going with today's low support to hold
RRC Has to clear today's high and hold 79.35
CSC If S1 holds, still a candidate for a run especially if can clear 49.00
UPS Inside day and still good if the 10 DMA continues to hold. 85.00 next hurdle with potential for new highs
TRIP Great follow through and would only consider an opening range reversal at this point for a new entry
QCOM Inside day. Like over 67.65 with today's low a good risk
P Opening Range reversal only now if holds today's low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
NVDA Has to clear 12.84 now
USG Inside day and 26.50 max risk-watch it over 27.61 then the 50 DMA
ALXN Confirmed phase change to accumulation. 99.00 has to hold.
BEAM Like the unconfirmed phase change back to bullish if today's low holds.
AAPL 430.75 is a good risk and over 437-438, could see another run. Risk is 35.42 and needs an OR breakout. On the flipside, if breaks 430, could be a good short.
ATI Wouldn't lose track of this since back over 30.60, back over the 200 DMA. But, if can't get through wouldn't dismiss the short possibility.
MOS 60.00 good stop and over 61.00 great sign
OXY Reports April 22nd Gapped higher changing phases (unconfirmed) Over 84.70 looks good and has to hold today's gap low
YUM Unconfirmed accumulation phase if holds 66.00 are, closer 67.00 and takes out 67.70
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TDC Inside day. Under today's low see another test of 52.00 or lower with max risk 56.51
PSX Weak warning phase with risk tight 63.30 to see if can drop to 60 or lower
SLV 2 inside days. Good one to follow the way today's range breaks
Bye for Now!
