The four major markets – SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM began the week at the low end of their several week range’s and worked their way higher to close at their weekly highs. They’re all now closing in on their respective all-time highs set earlier this year.
Since all but the strongest of the group (IWM) have essentially been stuck in a range since February, a continued move higher would represent a breakout of a significant consolidation period. However, the year to date (YTD) highs have proven to be formidable resistance so it seems likely that any rally will include several days of tighter consolidation at these YTD highs.
Next week earnings season heats up and this could provide the boost this market needs to breakout so keep your ears open to which way earnings announcements push the market – and why (i.e. reported eps, future guidance, revenue growth, etc)!
S&P 500 (SPY) Rallied into March resistance at 210 now needs to hold 209.35 as support. Still range bound until this clears 212.24 the Feb. highs.Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held up our Economic Modern Family with a narrow range doji day. However it did close over 125.60. This now needs to hold at this level and clear 126.32 to be at new highs.
Dow (DIA) Cleared 180.16 and held on the close. Want to see this hold 178.88 the 50 DMA and clear 181.75
Nasdaq (QQQ) Continued its rally from the 100 DMA With a little help from the semiconductor and Biotech sectors. Now needs to clear 108.20 and hold first 107 and if that fails 106.29 the 50 DMA to hold.
XLF (Financials) Confirmed Bullish Phase. Still consolidating at the 100 DMA. Has to clear 24.30 and hold 24.17 on a closing basis
KRE (Regional Banks) Range bound under its 6 month calendar range high at 41.06 and resistance at 41.20. Needs to continue to hold 40.85 on a closing basis
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed Return to a Bullish Phase. Thanks to some help from INTC and ALTR. Now needs to hold 55.78 and clear 56.73.
IYT (Transportation) Held the 200 DMA and rallied to resistance at 157.40 area confirmed its phase change to Warning Really like to see this hold the 200 DMA.
IBB (Biotechnology) Still trying to negate the topping pattern put in on 3/20/2015. 358.84 next resistance to clear and needs to clear 363.63 to negate the pattern, 346.53 a near term support level.
XRT (Retail) Still consolidating near the highs with an inside day. Needs to first clear 102 and then 102.50 to really get going again.
IYR (Real Estate) Still continues to look week on fears of interest rate fluctuations. Needs to hold support at 76.30 area now, or else see a visit down to 75.71 the 200 DMA
ITB (US Home Construction) Failed the 10 DMA with an inside doji day. Watch for this to clear 28.50. Under 27.83 spells trouble.
GLD (Gold Trust) Nice gap back to an unconfirmed recovery phase with 114-116 still the range to watch for now.
USO (US Oil Fund) With production dropping in terms of the number of operational oil rigs continually decreasing we may begin to see some semblance of order return. Held the 50 DMA with an inside day needs to hold at 18.07 and clear 18.75.
OIH (Oil Services) Took a day to digest yesterday’s big move. Now needs to hold at 35.59 and clear 37.00.
XLE (Energy) 78.00 support and over 81.00 looks great.
b Somewhat range bound until it can clear 54.21
UNG (US NatGas Fund) New all time low close!
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Another great performance with the help of SUNE and SPWR.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day sandwiched between the 10 and 50 DMA’s
UUP (Dollar Bull) Having cleared 26 this now looks like it will go higher yet. Next resistance at 26.50 and if clears that all time highs are at 27.19
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Confirmed the phase change back to bullish with an inside day.
EWP (Spain) Found support at 34.90
EWW (Mexico) After failing the 60 level I’d like to see this hold 59.52
EWG (Germany) Nice gap back off the 10 DMA
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Finally took a day to rest with an inside day.
EWY (South Korea) Gapped right to the 200 DMA and then pushed through to give us an unconfirmed phase change to accumulation.
RSX (Russia) After rallying for 6 days in a row this decided to correct back down to the 18.80 area. Needs to hold at 18.21 the 10 DMA
CORN (Corn) Over 26.00 gets interesting
SGG (Sugar) 13.00 in cash next place to clear
JO (Coffee) Inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***NEW: Market Tone: Short-term Positive 2, Intermediate-Term Positive 4, and Long-Term Positive 7, aggregate makes it a positive 14. Still in a trading range within a trading range but with a bullish tone. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and reported to you on twitter.
NOTE: As we are fully invested at this point we will only look for daytrades for the portfolio! We will still watch for longer term setups to point out to you as they happen though.
Category 1: N/A
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CAH Lots of call buying in this on Friday with an inside day. Like if sets up over 90.61 with risk to Friday’s low
VLO tried this for a daytrade on Friday. Still like if can hold 59.14 and clear 60.16.
NXPI A good day to miniswing candidate. Has room to 105 and beyond. If can continue to hold at 100.74 and clear 103.
ETFC Inside day, slightly negative pivots, like if this continues to hold at 28.23 on a closing basis and can clear 28.41
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
CMC Compressed against the 200 DMA t 16.17. Like if can clear Friday’s high with risk to under the 200 DMA for a daytrade or down to 15.40 area for a swing
PNRA Cleared and closed over the 100 DMA at 166.20 now like if sets up over 166.20 for a day to mini.
PCAR confirmed the accumulation phase. Like best for an ORR against 63.00
BZH like best for an ORR against 18.21 risk to 17.64 for a swing
GERN Still like and now even more if holds the 80 month moving average.
Shorts: Focus List: EBAY
Category 5:N/A
Category 6:N/A
