This week’s abbreviated Evening Watch will be prepared by Matthew Mullins, the leader of Marketgauge’s day trading chatroom and Assistant Director of Trading Education and Research. Mish is traveling to New York, where she will be working through the end of June. Mish will resume her market analysis on Monday 4/21.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day and a doji day as well. Watch Friday’s low to be support at 181.31 and watch Friday’s high (183.42) as the point to clear. The direction of the range break will be a good indicator for the direction of Tuesday’s move. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indexes, except IWM which is neutral to slightly negative.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tested and held the 200 DMA. The 200 DMA should be support. This looks good if it clears Friday’s high and R1, which line up.
Dow (DIA) Pushing up against the 50 DMA at 161.62. Watch to see if this can get back over the 50 DMA to return to a bull phase.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside doji day. Watch Friday’s low (which lines up with the 2/5 low) to be support. The direction of the range break will be a good indicator for the direction of Tuesday’s move.
XLF (Financials) Friday’s low should provide support. If it breaks expect a visit to the 200 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day on the upward sloping 50 DMA –as Mish has mentioned previously, this is the place to be first if the market firms.
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed the warning phase
IBB (Biotechnology) Closed under the 200 DMA, bringing this into a confirmed Distribution phase.
XRT (Retail) If Friday’s low breaks- look out below!
IYR (Real Estate) Tested and held the upward sloping 50 DMA. Today’s low should hold.
XHB (Homebuilders) Tested and held the upward sloping 200 DMA.
GLD Gapped higher
USO (US Oil Fund) 37.74 the place to clear
XLE (Energy) Climbed back over the 10 DMA. Today’s low should hold.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 74.34 is the place to clear
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day. Friday’s low needs to hold and Friday’s high needs to clear.
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) Subscribers: Inside day
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Compressed with an inside day
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Unconfirmed bull phase
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Looks good over today’s high. 20.90 is max risk.
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: 55.00 still the number to defend. Now in a confirmed bear phase.
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
WEC Very compressed and forming a flag. Looks great over today’s high. Max risk is today’s low.
BPO Has to hold the 10 DMA. Watch for a breakout over 19.72 or an ORR against the 10 DMA.
SWC I prefer an opening range reversal against the 10 DMA to control risk.
SPG Looks explosive over today’s high. The 10 DMA needs to hold.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
YUM Holding the upward sloping 50 DMA. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 10 DMA.
Phase Change:
MPW Very compressed with converging moving averages. The 10 DMA is max risk.
DVA Inside day and moved into an unconfirmed bull phase today. Friday’s low is max risk.
HSP Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 50 DMA. Recently over 80 month moving average.
WAG Moved into an unconfirmed phase change today. Today’s low is max risk.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DLR Inside day under strong resistance at the converging moving averages.
MON Watch for a breakdown or OR high failure under the 50 DMA.
TSLA Looks like it may test the 200 DMA. Today’s high cannot break. Watch for a breakdown or ORR under the 50 DMA.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
LNKD Inside day. Friday’s high and the 10 DMA cannot clear. Friday’s low needs to break.
Bye For Now!
