This week’s abbreviated Evening Watch will be prepared by Matthew Mullins, the leader of Marketgauge’s day trading chatroom and Assistant Director of Trading Education and Research. Mish is traveling to New York, where she will be working through the end of June. Mish will resume her market analysis on Monday 4/21.
S&P 500 (SPY) Broke out of the inside day, then failed tested S1 and closed near today’s high. I will be closely watching how SPY reacts to the 50 DMA (184.78) tomorrow. It will be encouraging to see it clear the 50 DMA, however today’s action could have been a rally into resistance. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in SPY and DIA. Neutral in QQQ and negative in IWM.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tested and held the 200 DMA and has a potential slingshot low (if it confirms tomorrow). Watch the 200 DMA as support.
Dow (DIA) Cleared the 50 DMA today to bring this into an unconfirmed Bull phase.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Also has a potential slingshot low that is awaiting confirmation. Holding the upward sloping 200 DMA.
XLF (Financials) Broke out of the inside day and is nearing the 50 DMA at 21.83.
SMH (Semiconductors) Bullish engulfing day on the upward sloping 50 DMA –as Mish has mentioned previously, this is the place to be first if the market firms.
IYT (Transportation) Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase. The 50 DMA at 132.89 should hold.
IBB (Biotechnology) Potential slingshot low, however this is under considerable resistance under the 200 DMA.
XRT (Retail) Looks heavy under today’s low. Has very little support until 79.38 (65 week moving average).
IYR (Real Estate) Tested and held the upward sloping 50 DMA, bringing this into a confirmed bull phase. Possible resistance at 68.89.
XHB (Homebuilders) Clinging onto the 200 DMA
GLD Gapped lower and closed over the 200 DMA to bring this into an unconfirmed warning phase.
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside doji day. Watch the direction of the range break.
OIH (Oil Services) 51.24 is the point to clear.
XLE (Energy) 91.30 is potential resistance
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) New all time highs in XOP.
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Gapped lower to the 50 DMA. Watch the 50 DMA as potential support at 34.99.
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Compressed
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Confirmed the bull phase
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Clearing recent highs and is poised for a move higher. Will be sensitive to news in Ukraine.
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Inside day. 55.00 still the number to defend.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QCOR Reports 4/29. Several day correction and is holding the gap. Looks good over R1 and today’s high. 75.50 (the gap low) needs to hold.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SWC Reports 4/29I prefer an opening range reversal against the 10 DMA to control risk.
SPG Reports 4/22. Watch for a reversal against recent highs to control risk.
CNQ Watch for a reversal or breakout against the 10 DMA. Today’s low is max risk.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
MPW Reports 5/8 Very compressed withconverging moving averages. The 10 DMA is max risk.
DVA Confirmed the bull phase today. The 50 DMA is max risk.
HSP Reports 4/30. Watch for a breakout or ORR. The 50 DMA is max risk.
WAG Moved into a confirmed bull phase today. The converging 10 and 50 DMA is max risk.
OCN Moved into a confirmed Recovery phase. The 50 DMA is max risk.
MTW Climbed into an unconfirmed Bull phase. Watch for a breakout or reversal against the 50 DMA.
CVX Cleared the 200 DMA today, to bring this into an unconfirmed Accumulation phase. Watch for a breakout or ORR over the 200 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ABC Reports 4/24 Watch for a breakdown or ORR under the 200 DMA. The 200 DMA cannot clear.
SCCO Reports 4/24 Watch for a breakdown or reversal against the 50 DMA. I expect a visit to the 200 DMA.
PETM Looks very heavy under today’s low. The 50 DMA is max risk. Dropped into a bear phase today.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
FDO Cannot clear the 10 DMA. Watch for a breakdown under S1 and today’s low.
Bye For Now!
