The Headline at the end of Thursday's session: S&P 500 closes the week at record high for the first time since 2007! However, it did not clear the closing high made on March 14th of 156.73. Thursday's high was posted as 156.67. Could be arguing pennies, however, I like to see exactness since the best barometer I know of is price. The Russell 2000, still lagging, certainly did not come within pennies of the 2013 high, but did clear the fast moving average. The Dow did indeed make new highs on Thursday and closed exactly at the same price it did on March 14th. Finally, NASDAQ cleared the recent resistance intraday and closed EXACTLY where it did on March 11th. Notable is the 2012 high 70.58. Therefore, the indexes are impressive but not completely out of the woods until we see more confirmed upside. Furthermore, I cannot help but feel puzzled that certain equities refuse to rally on this move-GOOG AAPL some Financial stocks GS (Goldman Sachs), DE (John Deere) CAT (Caterpillar), not to mention Steel, Copper.
S&P 500 (SPY) Not overbought therefore, 156 is the new closest support with 156.85 the new point to clear.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Has to clear 95.00 and hold Thursday's low
Dow (DIA) New highs with overbought RSIs on the weekly chart
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 68.45 would be a good close support to hold and really would like to see this clear 69.00 convincingly. Interesting that AAPL was not part of this rally on Thursday.
ETFs:
GLD 156.80 to 154.00 its established range for now Subs: If the market is good, under 154 should be a new short opportunity
XLF (Financials) Still giving me heartburn since it is struggling to clear the fast moving average. Without this group, hard to be fully convinced of Thursday's stellar close Subs: Over 18.30 could be an add if long or a place for a new long
IBB (Biotechnology) Carrying the load-as it has been since 2012
SMH (Semiconductors) Back to the 36.17 watch-high of 2012 if 35.00 can hold
XRT (Retail) 70.81 is still a potential double top
IYT (Transportation) Good comeback Thursday. If that low holds, will look for the recent highs to be taken out 112.30
IYR (Real Estate) 2013 high 69.55, matched on Thursday and now point to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) 35.00 should be resistance
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed phase change to bullish Subs: Did not close over the 80 monthly in March.
XLE (Energy) Closed out Thursday red, which unless it breaks 78.60 could just be some end of month profit taking
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed the gap from March 25th. Very curious to see how this begins the week-risk on or off.
XHB (Homebuilders) Still has a brick wall at higher levels which has to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Could not close the week above the weekly moving average.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
MTW Crossed the 80 monthly. Recent high 21.35. 20.35 now a good place to look for support
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
BEAM Reversal preferred now after its great move up.
MGM Kept ½ position and will look to add against 13.00 or above Thursday high
ADSK Over 41.40 should see move to 42.69 the 2012 high
PRU Doji day under the 10 DMA with slightly positive pivots. If holds 58.70 and clears Thursday high, could see move to new highs and the 80 monthly is close by
LIFE 63.90 Thursday low should hold. 65.50 next level to clear
YELP 23.00 support to hold. Still like this longer term as well, especially over 24.46
CREE Inside day and by some rough calculations, could see a move to 64.00 over time. Risk is Thursday low and has to clear R1 55.00
OI Was in this now looking for a new entry for swing. Over 26.85 like this with risk to Thursday's low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BAC Oversold and holding 12.00. Over Thursday high lines up with R1
Phase Change: SODA confirmed phase change to bullish on a super light volume day. Like this over 50.00 for a swing. WLT Inside day so did not confirm the slingshot unless it clears 29.27 NTES Inside dayhas to clear 55.13 MBI Unconfirmed weak warning phase, oversold which tells me over the 50 DMA 10.35 overdue for a good pop LTD Over 44.90 will change phase and look better for another push up. ALGN About to get a golden cross and if it clears 33.80 R1 risk to 32.80 for swing INTC Inside day. If holds Thursday low, and moves over 22.00 see the 200 DMA next
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SINA Inside day. 49.05 max risk and if break 48.00 looks like a move to 46.00
WFM Has to break S1 86.48 and not clear 87.25
PCLN Inside day. 693 good resistance. Will look for a good entry point since see lower prices in store
Bye for Now!
