Yes, it’s true that volume on Monday’s up move was meager compared to the selloff last week. It’s also true that the small caps regained the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change back to bullish.
Equally true is that NASDAQ 100 traded lifelessly closing down for the month while the Dow closed significantly higher.
Otherwise, all the major sectors-Financials, Semiconductors, Retail, Transportation, Real Estate held on to bullish phases.
Looking top down, we need to see NASDAQ move up and the Small Caps hold the 50 DMA. Low volume may not be the end all be all, but clearly, with 2 out of the 4 indices lagging, looking for price confirmation on the weaklings (comparatively of course), makes sense as Tuesday is April Fool’s Day!
S&P 500 (SPY) Look here and we are above the 2014 Calendar Range Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Look here and we are marginally up over the 2014 Calendar Range
Dow (DIA) Look here, and we are NOT over the 2014 Calendar Range-even with the recent strength
Nasdaq (QQQ) Finally,look here, and we are NOT over the 2014 Calendar Range-plus still in a warning phase
XLF (Financials) Topping candle looms and today’s low is a great place for this to defend
SMH (Semiconductors) Semis-the new Biotechs of 2014. Matched the highs and closed on new ones
IYT (Transportation) A really strong contender for new highs if the market holds up
IBB (Biotechnology) Unless this clears 245, still vulnerable with an inside day
XRT (Retail) If the market cannot hold, look here for weakness.
IYR (Real Estate) Really like to see this defend Monday’s lows
XHB (Homebuilders) Crossed the 50 DMA now has to stay there
GLD Weakened but has not violated key support at 121
USO (US Oil Fund) Digested recent move and held last Thursday’s gap
XLE (Energy) Subscribers-should really hold 88 now
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) It seems like deja vu to watch if 67.00 holds
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) Water is a commodity too-more precious than gold when you’re thirsty
UUP (Dollar Bull) Hasn’t closed over 21.50 since late February-good point to watch
EEM (Emerging Markets) Overbought now
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Will raise stop to under Friday’s gap low with some fudge
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: 45.70 is the 10 DMA to cross
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Hello farmers planting less corn this year
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: I like this but its choppy
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Longer it stays above 57.87 the better I like it
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Existing Position Comments:
*PM Over 81.88 and we are looking at for P1 neat 82.70 area
*HSP Crossed the 50 DMA today which means we will use a trailing stop and try to stay with the balance
**XRX Long a sort of buy and hold which means we would like to see the 200 DMA hold up but also now Friday’s lows
**ONVO Confirmed the slingshot low and had an unconfirmed phase change. Like to see the 200 DMA hold now along with S2
**YUM Long for a hybrid which means want to see this hold 74.50 now and bust through 77.35
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AAPL Sloppy trading but worth watching if today’s low holds.
X Now want to see 27.45 level hold and last week’s high clear
ALK So close to the highs and in the transportation group but have to see it clear 93.91 to make as new high then hold S2 and today’s low
DTV- Closed above Friday’s high and now has to clear 77.70 to keep going up to 80.00 next resistance
MBI Has to clear R1 now at 14.03 and hold last weeks low of 13.76plus today was an inside day
KSS 2 inside days slightly negative pivots which means has to clear today’s high and R1 to confirm then hold today’s low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AFL keep eyes on since moving averages are converging and it is holding the 200 DMA with a good tight risk
MU Confirmed slingshot low with 23.00 closest support to hold and the 50 DMA to clear
TWTR Has the slingshot low in place and now needs to clear R1 47.47 to get moving
DRI Didn’t do much today so now has to clear 51.00 and hold the 200 DMA to see 56.00
ALGN Possible Slingshot low off the 200 DMA making today’s low a good risk and has to clear today’s high and close above it
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EL Inside day and resistance at 68.00. Could see lower prices to 64.50 first-especially if market weakens
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
Bye For Now!
