This week’s abbreviated Evening Watch will be prepared by Matthew Mullins, the leader of Marketgauge’s day trading chatroom and Assistant Director of Trading Education and Research. Mish is traveling to New York, where she will be working through the end of June. Mish will resume her market analysis on Monday 4/21.
S&P 500 (SPY) Closed above the 50 DMA to bring the S&P 500 into a confirmed bull phase. The 187.15 area is resistance, while the 50 DMA needs to hold. Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Climbing away from the slingshot low and cleared the 10 DMA. Possible resistance at the 114.2 area but, that should only be a minor hurdle as it climbs towards the 50 DMA.
Dow (DIA) Like SPY, DIA is also in a bull phase. Possible resistance at 164.31.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Basically paused today, and closed marginally higher than Wednesday’s close.
XLF (Financials) Briefly traded over the 50 DMA but could not hold it. Remains in a warning phase. 21.88 needs to clear. These need to participate for a sustained rally.
SMH (Semiconductors) Broke out of its inside day and cleared the 10 DMA. 45.70 area is next resistance.
IYT (Transportation) Strong move today. Helped along by FDX and UPS.
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding the 200 DMA and looks poised for a nice move against the 200 DMA and the slingshot low.
XRT (Retail) Inside day under resistance at the overhead 200 DMA.
XHB (Homebuilders) Holding the 200 DMA
GLD Broke the 200 DMA to bring GLD into an unconfirmed distribution phase.
USO (US Oil Fund) Over bought with an inside day at recent highs.
OIH (Oil Services) Doji day at recent highs. 51.24 is the point to clear.
XLE (Energy) Very strong. Once again, closed at all-time highs.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Also closed at new all-time highs.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Had a very good day after breaking out of its inside day. Pushing against the 10 DMA at 66.15.
KRE (Regional Banks) Subscribers: Nearing the 50 DMA at 40.13
EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase.
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Clearing recent highs and is poised for a move higher. Very strong.
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: 55.00 still the number to defend.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QCOR Reports 4/29. Several day correction and is holding the gap. Looks good over R1 and today’s high.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MTW Watch for a breakout or reversal against the 50 DMA. Possible resistance at 31.70. Must hold the 50 DMA.
YUM Reports 4/22 I prefer an ORR against the 10 DMA to control risk. 77.91 is potential resistance.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
MPW Reports 5/8 Very compressed withconverging moving averages. The 200 DMA is max risk.
SCTY Brick wall bottom and is sitting on the 200 DMA. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 200 DMA.
TSO Reports 4/30. Climbed into a confirmed Accumulation phase today. Watch for a breakout over today’s high or a reversal against the 200 DMA.
GNW Reports 4/29 Moved into a confirmed bull phase today. Watch for a beakout or ORR against the converging 10 and 50 DMAs.
AGCO Reports 4/29. Climbed into an unconfirmed Accumulation phase today. Watch for a breakout or ORR against the 50 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CTRX Watch for a breakdown or ORR against the 10 DMA. A dip to recent lows is very possible.
BBY Looks very heavy under today’s low. A dip to recent lows is very plausible.
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
FDO Cannot clear the 10 DMA. Watch for a breakdown under S1 and today’s low.
Bye For Now!
