The week went out with a limp over the 50 DMA in S&P 500, holding it in the Dow (after an abysmal day for IBM), NASDAQ pushed up against the 50 DMA and IWM (Russell 2000) held the February lows, recapturing some of its losses but still fairly far from the 50 DMA. Two indexes remain in warning, two in bullish with neutral market internals. Mixed bag-not nearly the onslaught last Monday's performance suggested would occur, but a definite deterioration from the highs, suggesting that without more work, perhaps a top is in place for a while longer.
S&P 500 (SPY) Friday's range lacked volume, even with the return to an unconfirmed bullish phase. The daily chart has some overhead hurdles starting with the fast moving average. The 50 DMA and Friday's low, an important point to hold Subscribers: Pivots Positive so unless it breaks S1, have to look at the bullish trend
Russell 2000 (IWM) After all the damage, it held 88.79 the last swing low from February 26th. That is the place to hold now with 92.00 major overhead resistance.
Dow (DIA) 145 down to the 50 DMA key support to hold. Subscribers: R1 and previous day high line up with the negative pivots
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Interesting inside day wedged between the channel low and the 50 DMA-AAPL earnings should have an impact early next week
ETFs:
GLD Classic white cap trade setting up. New lows, 4 tries to pop, then if it gets a failure, expect a new leg down. That's what I will be watching for. Subscribers: Would mean a break under S1 which lines up with Friday's low
XLF (Financials) Crept back above the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed bull phase. To be fully convinced, would want to see this clear 18.30. Otherwise, 17.75 is key support to hold
IBB (Biotechnology) A gift on Friday thanks to VRTX. This sector has been amazing!!
SMH (Semiconductors) 35.13 a place to clear with good support all the way down. In other words, bullish and still bullish for this group. Subscribers: Will look at add next week if holds well
XRT (Retail) Inside day over the 50 DMA-worth watching!!
IYT (Transportation) 107.80 has to clear, but Friday's action illustrates that this could continue to shine in the coming months, years.
IYR (Real Estate) This was the one to watch on Friday and buy as it cleared the Thursday high after an inside day and closed really well.
USO (US Oil Fund) Glass bottom in play as long as recent lows hold with an inside day Friday
OIH (Oil Services) Tried to push through but failed the 200 DMA
XLE (Energy) Unclear about whether this will hold the 200 DMA or not. Over Friday's high encouraging but under 73.50, trouble.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold with Friday's high, after 2 inside days, awesome if clears. Subscribers: Big eyes here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Head fake into that run above the 200 DMA-still watching for it though.
XHB (Homebuilders) Good bounce off of the 28.00 support level after looking like it would fail there. Could be back as a contender
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.60 is the weekly moving average
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: I'm even more convinced that futures sugar will take out 18.00 and bottom out once and for all.
FXI (China) Subscribers: 35.50 level now should hold
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
WYNN Reports May 6th. Watch for an ORR since this could move to 130 area
AIG Reports May 1 Inside day back over the 50 DMA. Has to clear 39.10 and hold 38.60 level
TIF Reports May 28th. Like XRT had an inside day, so did this above the 50 DMA. 70.50 is a good point to clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AOL Reports May 6th. 2 inside days holding the 50 DMA at 37.30. (Could be a long or short depending how the range breaks
Phase Change:
JWN Reports May 16th. Inside day holding the 200 DMA. Really like over Friday high and R1 wit risk to 54.50
TS Reports May 1. Pushed through the moving averages. 40.00 max risk and some resistance at 41.20
MUR Reports May 1st. Slingshot low. 60 level good risk point on reversal or breakout
PM Inside day right under the 50 DMA. Has to clear 92.62 and back through the 50 DMA and Thursday high. Still like this for a long term trade ahead of any legalization of marijuana.
ROST Reports May 23. Inside day-Like to see it clear R1. Risk is 62.00 and see this as a good potential run to 66-67.00
ESV Reports April 30. has to clear 54.15 last Thursdays high to confirm a glass bottom-and close there
WFC a good financial stock to go to if XLF holds up-on the 50 DMA and needs to hold Friday's low
RIG Reports May 6th Inside day right under the 200 DMA. Has to clear R1 and the 200 DMA and could be good for a swing til earnings
Shorts: See comments on GLD. 1 short pick since lots that have setups report very soon
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
NE Friday's high good resistance. Closer risk 36.25. Has to break S1 35.43 to see recent lows and lower
Bye for Now!
