Such a slow day, my metabolism hardly worked fast enough to digest all of Easter Sunday’s goodies! A combination of Ukraine uncertainty, inflection points in the indices and a slew of earnings all kept volatility at bay.
S&P 500 and the Dow continue to be in the best shape, very close to taking out resistance points from April 10th. The reversal tops remain, but a good open over the April 10th points should help a lot now that both returned to bullish phases.
The 50 day moving average eludes both the Russell 2000s and NASDAQ (at time of writing waiting for NFLX earnings) for now. That will be the area to eventually cross or fail from which should impact everything if that turns out to be the case.
Not much else to say for now-the market will show the way soon enough. My eyes are on the interest rates. They have firmed somewhat from the lows, but no discernible signal yet on how that will play out.
S&P 500 (SPY) Starting to move away from the 50 DMA but still has overhead hurdles beginning with 187.15Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Great reversal off the 200 DMA last week but has lots of room before we can talk about a phase change-the 50 DMA is at 115.76
Dow (DIA) The April 10th high is 164.31 which for now, is its next hurdle.
Nasdaq (QQQ) 87.88 is the high from April 10th with the 10 DMA now su0pport at 85.80
XLF (Financials) Inside day just under the 50 DMA. A gap over 21.90 would be a welcomed sight. Has to defend 21.79
SMH (Semiconductors) That high to clear from 4/10 is 46.03 with the 50 DMA the line in the sand support
IYT (Transportation) The all-time high is 137.98-becoming a fave to watch on new highs
IBB (Biotechnology) A reversal at the 200 DMA last week-maybe worst is over for now with lots to prove on the upside
XRT (Retail) Still a weak link and has to at least clear 82.51 then perhaps we are looking to the overhead moving averages
IYR (Real Estate) Big day there and still a huge contender with March high 69.33
GLD All over the place-of little interest
USO (US Oil Fund) 2 inside days. Very ripe for new highs or possible double top-stay tuned
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day-eyes her over the fast moving average
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) Inside day over the 50 DMA 26.49 needs to clear
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: A weekly close over 42.26 will be an interesting breakout
EWG (Germany) Inside day
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: After a reversal pattern from the lows, a weekly close over 41.96 would be a good signal to follow
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: At this point, watching the converging moving averages
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Another one to watch for a weekly breakout over the 200 week moving average
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Over 56.00 could be a low risk trade with stop under last week’s low
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Inside day-over 40.35 could be a low risk trade to today’s lows
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MTW Reports May 1st. As long as it holds the 50 DMMA has possibilities over Thursday’s high 31.35
DVA More miniswing as far as risk since reports May 1st. Inside day and risk now is 68.70 area
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
FRX Reports Before open 4/29. Cleared the 50 DMA and hold to hold today’s low for a move up t0 95 area next
SCTY Neutral pivots holding the 200 DMA has to clear 58.64 and could see 65.00
SODA Reports 5/28. Inside day just under the 50 DMA at 40.88 and over 41.65 could see resumed move to 44 area
DDD Reports April 29th but for a miniswing has an inside day and over the 10 DMA at 49.72 could see a pop ahead of earnings
Shorts:
Category 5: N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
CHRW Reports 4/29 Resistance at the 200 DMA which if this cannot clear and breaks S1 could be a low risk short for drop to 54.75 first support
Bye For Now!
