Even with today's shenanigans (in the form of someone hacking into AP's Twitter account and spreading rumors of explosions at the White House), our analysis that the bull trend is continuing became more apparent. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ confirmed their bullish phases. The Russell 2000 moved into an unconfirmed bull phase. (Needs another day over the 50 Simple Moving average to confirm.) If it does, all indexes will once again be in Bullish phases. The Dow is also looking rosier as it moved over the Fast moving average (We use a 10 day). Several ETFs confirmed positive phase changes, with Biotechnology making new highs (yet again). We are in the thick of earnings season, so make sure you know when your instruments are reporting.
A COUPLE OF TODAY'S TESTIMONIALS:
Eddie H. 2nd profit target for me in INTC!!
Gary C. - Great pick by Mish of SMH last week!
S&P 500 (SPY) SPY continued its move upward after yesterday's confirmation of its bullish phase. It finished off the day closing above the 10 DMA. Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) This index performed well today and cleared both the 10 and 50 DMA. It had a nice rally into the close, which managed to boost it into an unconfirmed Bullish phase. Subscribers: 93.15 is the next hurdle.
Dow (DIA) This also had a nice rally into the close, which pushed it over the 10 DMA.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Continued its bounce from the 200 DMA and confirmed its bullish phase.
ETFs:
GLD Closed the gap from 4/19. But ended its several day rally with a decline and a possible bear flag forming. Unless it can clear todays high, still looking vulnerable. Subscribers: Read Keith's market outlook from last Friday for more analysis.
XLF (Financials) Gapped higher this morning and cleared the 10 DMA and the 18.30 area that I mentioned yesterday. Also held the LOD during the rumor-fueled spike down.
IBB (Biotechnology) This sector has been amazing, as it continues to make all- time highs!! Gapped even higher this morning, before closing on the LOD and filling today's gap. Another doji day today, which could mean that this move is running out of gas.
SMH (Semiconductors) Cleared the 35.39 hurdle that I mentioned yesterday and also cleared the channel that goes back to February. Looks great, provided it takes out recent highs at 36.18!
XRT (Retail) Continued its move off of the 50 DMA and closed decisively over the 10 DMA. Has resistance looming at 73.00.
IYT (Transportation) Barely closed over the 50 DMA, pushing this into an unconfirmed bullish phase. Subscribers: Pivots positive and needs to hold the 50 DMA.
IYR (Real Estate) Continued its move upward from the 10 DMA. Subscribers: Needs to clear 72.60.
USO (US Oil Fund) Glass bottom in play as long as recent lows hold. Subscribers: Needs to clear 31.90
OIH (Oil Services) Confirmed its phase change to warning as it held the 200 DMA. Subscribers: Pushing against the 10 DMA.
XLE (Energy) Held the previously mentioned 73.50 area and cleared the 10 DMA.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold. Subscribers: Bullish engulfing pattern. Big eyes here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Confirmed the phase change to warning as it closed above the 200 DMA. Subscribers: Setting up as a swing candidate against 54.00 low.
XHB (Homebuilders) Pushed through the 50 DMA into an unconfirmed bull phase.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Climbed higher with a doji day.
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Closed under the 10 DMA. Needs to clear 64.00.
FXI (China) Subscribers: 35.50 level held up today and closed above the 10 DMA.
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Provided 25.50 holds, possible basing action. Especially if clears 25.80.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
NOTE: If possible, we are trying to keep the list down to stocks that have already reported.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QIHU Reports 5/19- Inside day. If holds 31.00 and clears 32.56, could go back to test recent highs at 35.00.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
GMCR Reports May 8- Improved to a Condition One. If it holds S1, still has the potential for a move to 70.00.
SODA Reports May 6 Has to hold 50.75. And clear 52.00.
TRIP Reports 5/7 Ultimately needs to clear 54.14. If holds today's low, will consider a breakout or OR rev.
C Looks good. Prefer an OR reversal to control risk, provided it holds 45.70.
KBH Providing it holds 21.15, has the potential to climb to 30.00. This is clearing a 5 year base.
WYNN Reports May 6th Closed on new two year highs. If it clears it clears 131, it still has a chance to run to 140 before earnings.
TIF Reports May 28th. If it holds S1 and clears today's high, could still run to the 75 area.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
BRCM If this opens higher than 34.50, it clears a lot of congestion. If it opens below, watch for it to hold 34.00.
NTES Unconfirmed phase change to bullish but, would not give this a lot of room. Has to hold 53.00 and clear 54.00.
ROST Reports May 23 Doji day. Has to hold today's low. If can clear 64, has potential to move up to 67.00.
RIG Reports May 6th Unconfirmed phase change to warning. 49.00 max risk. Needs to clear today's high.
IBM Registered as a brick wall. To control risk, should hold 189.75. Brick wall bottom is 187.68. Could see move to 196.50 or higher.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CHRW Reports May 7 50 DMA resistance at 58.15. Closer resistance at todays high. Needs to break S1, which lines up with todays low. Can break recent lows or lower.
APC Reports May 6 Classic setup, provided it breaks S1 and does not clear today's high.
DKS Reports 5/13 Resistance at 47.70. Like to see S1 break.
NE Provided it does not clear 36.95, a move under today's low and S1 is likely. Will add to our current short position.
Bye for Now!
