I hope some of you took heed of the love affair we have had this year in soft commodities as many had spectacular day, especially in light of the unimpressive day in equities.
Corn, sugar, live cattle all performed well to name a few. The stock market indices closed red. An indigestionday? Perhaps. As expected, NASDAQ turned out weakest-with the others (IWM SPY DIA) posting an inside day-when the trading range is within the trading range of the day prior.)
Rates continue to creep the market out some-wasn’t the opposite effect the original intention?
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day. 187.15 held with the April highs 189.70 Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day.115.84 the overhead 50 DMA with 113.50 area to defend now
Dow (DIA) Inside day. April high 166.06 and now, 164.30 area to defend
Nasdaq (QQQ) 86.04 the fast moving average to defend and only a move over 87.88 would get exciting
XLF (Financials) Confirmed bullish phase if it holds above 21.90
SMH (Semiconductors) That high to clear from 4/10 is 46.03 with the 10 DMA at 44.96 the support-Inside day
IYT (Transportation) Maintained new highs and quiet
IBB (Biotechnology) gave back and a key to the market overall as it needs to hold the gap from Tuesday
XRT (Retail) Closed just shy of the 200 DMA after trading above it intraday-another key
IYR (Real Estate) March high 69.33-took the bad housing numbers well
GLD Right on the month moving average which means has to hold or could be in bigger trouble
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Needs to run back up over 65.40 to get interesting
EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: A weekly close over 42.26 will be an interesting breakout
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) The hammer doji candle suggests that the correction could have run its course
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Over 35.00 looks good
BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Another one to watch for a weekly breakout over the 200 week moving average
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Unconfirmed recovery phase if holds today’s lows
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: The 200 weekly moving average coming up
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OXY Reports May 5th 95.40 max risk and over today’s high should go to new highs for a miniswing trade
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
CNQ Reports May 9th. Good start on a slow day-should now hold 40.40 level and work its way over 40.95
HSP We have to exit 4/29 since reports 4/30 before open. Inside day and closed well-watch for a daytrade add
STLD Cleared the 10 DMA end of day. Good monthly chart-like if holds 18.25
WAG 66.20 support to hold and over 68.00 see a move to recent highs and beyond possible
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
MBI Brick wall bottom-Reports May 12th-if holds the 200 DMA 12.30 like to perhaps 13.45 area-has positive pivots
EJ Doesn’t report til June. Brick wall bottom and now over the 200 DMA. Needs a move over 11.03
CIEN Reports June 5th-slingshot low-over 21.09 looks good with risk to around 20.50
MPW Reports May 8th Inside day Golden cross-like over today’s high
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MON Floundering around the 50 DMA and under today’s low could see a drop down
DISH Reports May 8th. If breaks the 10 DMA 59.02 then could see another drop to around 55.00
TRIP Reports May 6th Under 82 seems destined to test February low 73.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
BBY Reports May 22nd Like this if todays’ high does not clear and it breaks 24.10
Bye For Now!
