As the dust settles on AAPL and the question remains on whether its worth will be measured as a value/dividend play with a potential kicker to the upside if products are released, NASDAQ had an inside day. S&P 500 ended with a firm but somewhat indecisive doji candle (when the opening and closing prices are nearly identical). The Russell 2000 confirmed back to a bullish phase and the Dow closed right on a fairly important pivotal level in price 146.50. There was a new rotation into Oil and Gas with Biotechnology completely out of favor after a dismal performance by Amgen Inc. Incidentally, we did also point out the 2 doji candles the last 2 days in the Biotech ETF and mentioned yesterday, the fuel tank was pointing towards empty. The damage done on 4/15 (now, forever etched in our minds as the day of the Boston Marathon bombing) is yet to be undone; therefore, we are keeping the number and size of long positions manageable. Other countries ETFs like China and Russia both firmed-they have been so incredibly beat up that there is little surprise some catch up is in the works.
S&P 500 (SPY) 158.13 is the top of the nasty sell off day on April 15th. On an intraday basis that area cleared, but not on a closing basis. That is now a point I'd like to see in the rear view mirror. 156.70 is the point to hold Subscribers: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) The high of the same nasty red candle day from 4/15 is 93.15.
Dow (DIA) This did not even come close to the high of 4/15. As all phases are bullish, the trend is one to be followed.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day and its 4/15 high is 69.79 to clear.
ETFs:
GLD Gapped up. It still seems that the rally will fizzle with new lows in store, but not advisable to push it from the short side.
XLF (Financials) 18.65 is the 2013 high now to clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Brick wall if continues its southern journey. However, a breather here is well-deserved
SMH (Semiconductors) New 2-year high close-guess who is happy? Subscribers: 36.00 level really should now hold
XRT (Retail) 72.79 is its 4/15 high with support now at 71.30
IYT (Transportation) Confirmed the bullish phase as long as it respects the 50 DMA Subscribers: 108.84-if takes that level out, especially on a gap, will look to add
IYR (Real Estate) Matched the high of 4/12 and closed one tick above. Watch for either a continuation up or a potential double top
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed a base for now in its current bear phase
OIH (Oil Services) A continuation over the 200 DMA and right to the 50 DMA. This now needs some digestion
XLE (Energy) The 50 DMA now resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 59.50 huge support to hold. Like it over today's high Subscribers: Got long and bailed but for swing, nothing got violated. Therefore, will look for a new entry over 60.40
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration)Today was the day if you are a believer of the 200 DMA support Subscribers: Entry tweeted at 56.70. Now, the resistance overhead is close by
XHB (Homebuilders) 30.00 back on watch
UUP (Dollar Bull) Still needs to clear the weekly moving average
SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: Made a new low today. Lesson here is waiting for that phase changed that never happened was prudent
FXI (China) Subscribers: the 200 DMA is real close
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Bought it on the opening range reversal, took some profit and holding the rest to see if can get above 26.50-where it will be an add
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
QIHU Reports 5/19- Nice late day move which means have to see an opening range reversal to control risk
GMCR Reports May 8- At his point has to clear the recent highs 59.30 to see its potential for a move to 70.00.
AOL Reports May 8th. Improved to a condition 1. Cleared but did not close above 38.50. Now, over that level could still see a run before earnings
SODA Reports May 6 Cleared 52.00 with room to recent highs and possibly beyond
JWN Reports May 16th. 2 doji days in a row which means could follow this up or down. Up over today's high and under S1 and the 50 DMA
KBH Inside, doji day. Long on an opening range reversal and see the potential to climb to 30.00 provided 21.36 holds
TIF Reports May 28th. Didn't quite clear 72.50 but, if does, could still run to the 75 area.
IR Changed back to bullish phase provided it holds the 50 DMA with an inside day today Has to clear 54.53
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ROST Reports May 23 Not clean, but has positive pivots and holding the 10 DMA now max risk
FDX Gapped over the 200 DMA. If today's low holds, like the phase change trade
IBM Inside day after brick wall bottom. Has to clear 192.55.
X Reports April 30th. Huge up move with 16.70 now a good support level to watch for an ORR
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
AAPL Neutral pivots but sill heavy looking and 375 a good target with 411 a decent risk
RAX Reports May 8th. Inside day. 46.30 max risk. Under S1 can see recent lows and perhaps even lower
CRM Reports May 16th. Inside day. Max risk 41.55 and has to take out S1 to see 40.00A
DKS Reports 5/13 Now, 47.20 area should be resistance. 46.50 next point to break
WMT Reports May 16th (Not classic) but had a slingshot high, bearish engulfing and closed under the 10 DMA. 79.00 are max risk and an OR high failure not bad to watch for
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows
CHRW Reports May 7 50 DMA resistance at 58.11 Needs to break S1, which lines up with todays low.
Bye for Now!
