That April 15th high taunts us in all the indexes with only the S&P 500 closing the week out above it. Friday was such a slow day, I was able to lunch with the ladies, a most welcome respite after an exhausting but highly profitable week thanks to holding WYNN until right before earnings and Intel (INTC) from right after earnings. Plus, a long position in the ETF for semiconductors. All week long, the thought that ran through many investors heads is how hard the market is working to stay strong. Typically, the stock market is a predictor not a laggard, around 6 months ahead of the economic facts. So, in spite of the markets inability to end the week on new highs, ending darn close to them has to mean the anticipation is for some positive numbers ahead. Of course, always subject to change, the savvy traders take profits on the rallies and look for buy opportunities on the dips.
S&P 500 (SPY) Low volume retreat from the highs but, held the 4/15 high 158.13. That becomes a good number to judge how Monday might go from. Above, confidence abounds, below, another trip to the 156 level Subscribers: Pivots negative in all indexes (DIA more neutral)
Russell 2000 (IWM) 93.15 is the pivotal 4/15 high. It tested the 50 DMA and held. But, every rally in this index has made lower highs. Still a reason for caution here. Subscribers: Signs of weakness and heading back for a look see at TWM
Dow (DIA) Closed green but not above the 4/15 high. Fueled the rally a few weeks ago. If it gives it up next week, will change bias to a more negative one. Subscribers: Neutral Pivots making R1 and S1 equally important.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Friday's high was just under the 4/15 high 69.79. But, it didn't close alarmingly therefore, good place to check out for a move above or below Friday's high
ETFs:
GLD 140 is a big level-if defends it, still looking like an island bottom. If not, good place to look for a short Subscribers: Maintained its positive pivots
XLF (Financials) 18.50 pivotal. 18.20 big support
SMH (Semiconductors) If this dips to 35.40, see that as a buy opportunity Subscribers: Hanging in there with a no loss stop at 35.00 level
XRT (Retail) Cleared72.79, its 4/15 high, ending the week with an inside day. Strength here is a good sign.
IYT (Transportation) Closed right at the 4/15 high both Thursday and Friday and with a doji day. Subscribers: Looking for a new long entry if 108 holds.
IYR (Real Estate) Two doji days in a row, then ended the week with an inside day. Could be signs of fatigue unless it clears the new highs Subscribers: 2 days negative pivots-making R1 important
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day just below the 50 DMA. After the big move up, looks more like a rest than a top
OIH (Oil Services) Another group making lower highs on every move up. Subscribers: More negative than positive here
XLE (Energy) The 50 DMA remains resistance ending the week with a doji candle. Subscribers: Didn't hit the chandelier exit on Friday so holding tail
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Closed weak although held the recent low 58.97. Subscribers: A gap higher would be good to follow. Otherwise, aside again until its clearer
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Began 2013 with a very bullish move and since its peak high in March, making lower highs. Subscribers: Aside now
XHB (Homebuilders) Friday, even with the strong session, could not clear 30.66, the 2013 high.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Still needs to clear the 200 weekly moving average.
FXI (China) Subscribers: Confirmed the phase change to warning if the 200 DMA holds up. If clears the 50 DMA will look even better
RSX (Russia) Subscribers: Holding the balance of the position. If can get above 26.50, it will be an add
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.)
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QIHU Reports May 20th Like the 34 level as pivotal as this is a wee bit overbought on the weekly chart, not daily and has a shot at new highs before earnings
NTAP Reports May 22nd Provided it holds 34.15, now like much better over R1 35.12.
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
TIF Reports May 28th. Inside day with slightly negative pivots. But, it held S1 so that is now a good risk. Has potential to see 75 or higher before it reports
NSC Bought a teeny starter swing position, will look to add over76.25. 50 DMA needs to hold at 74.50. Weekly and monthly charts look positive.
TRIP Reports May 7th Closed just below 54.14 with a DOJI day. Provided it holds 52.00 area, looks like it could see more upside before earnings.
SODA Reports May 6 DOji day and still holding with a no loss stop seeing the possibility could move to 56 and beyond ahead of earnings
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AWAY Tested and held the 50 DMA. 30.00 is good support to hold with a move over 31.00 first place to clear, then R1
Phase Change:
AAPL 415 level now new support to look at an ORR against
FDX Inside day.Like that it held the 200 DMA. If opens above 93.70, and clears Friday's high like for a swing
IBM Inside day. Still in play provided it holds 192.30 and clears 196.50
PX 2 inside days. Neutral pivots so if holds S1, can look over Friday high. Looks good on daily/weekly
PETM Reports May 21st Appears to be coiling with between the 10 and 200 DMAs. Like over Friday high and R1 Risk 66.50
OI 2 inside days. Bought a small starter position and has to hold 25.00 max risk and clear R1 (25.56), and ultimately 26.00 which will also clear the 50 DMA.
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
WLL 45.88 is the 200 DMA and max risk. Would only short if can get a risk within 1 ATR or better from that resistance
CRM Reports May 16th 41.15 max risk and needs to break S1 at 40.53.
Bye for Now!
