Except for a couple of big movers both long and short, the overall market caught an early buzz then caught a lot of zzzz’s thereafter!
However, set those coffee brewers to strong for Wednesday as lots of activity is expected due to economic reports, continuation of earnings, the musings of the good ole FED and the end of April.
NASDAQ pinned the exact range mentioned as the parameters to cross coming into today-that range break should yield follow through. The small caps had an inside day (trading range inside the trading range of the day prior. DIA and SPY look poised to take out the highs unless the market does the same old thing-finds the bears hitting the bids and makes a healthy market look a bit piqued.
Soft commodities by the way,-have I mentioned those lately?
S&P 500 (SPY) 186.50 pivotal, over 188 much better. Subscribers: Pivots Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day so if not too close to the 200 DMA
Dow (DIA) Different world here but getting close to the highs which could be resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 86.35 to 87.35 the range to decisively break one way or another.
XLF (Financials) Has to get through the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Inside day. A move 45.00 will be a really good sign the worst is over
IYT (Transportation) Inside day with the point to clear 136.65
IBB (Biotechnology) Better if holds
XRT (Retail) Had an inside day clearing the 200 DMA-big eyes here
IYR (Real Estate) Strong but slow action
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subscribers: Held the 10 DMA so the bottoming pattern for now is intact
EEM (Emerging Markets) 41.00 good area to uphold now
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Subscribers: 22.00 becoming a better support area to keep watching with a new move over 22.20 encouraging
EWP (Spain) Subscribers: 41.98 the highs to clear
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: Had an inside day and will like better over R1 40.97 for starters
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: New multi-year high close
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Big eyes here again after an impressive end of day comeback
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: This looks great again too
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
WLP Reports before the open and with inside day, over R1 and today’s high line up to watch for
PLD 40.60 a great spot to hold and back over 41.20 looks better
WFC Closed well-with Fed meeting if holds 49.15 look for another opportunity to enter.
HUN 24.75 now a good support level with a move over 25.00 another chance here
OXY Reports May 5th Possible slingshot high but has to confirm by breaking down under S1 96.38 and closing under the low of today
FDX Inside day above the 50 DMA like over 136.02 with risk to under today’s low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AON 2 inside days right on the 50 DMA has to clear 86.29 hold today’s lows
DRI Inside day converging moving averages. Has to hold 49.45 and clear 50.56
GILD Inside day over the 50 DMA with an unconfirmed phase change to bullish, If holds 73 can see another leg up
GOOG Nice move off the 200 DMA-now like an ORR better but would consider it over the 10 DMA
MGM Confirms slingshot and now has to hold today’s low and like on a reversal because it has the 50 DMA close at 25.89
TFM Going sideways but if holds 35.40 could get going
PM If today’s low holds, still a contender on the phase confirm
RCL cleared the 50 DMA so if today’s low holds, look for a confirmation of the phase change back to bullish
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EBAY Reported and dropped under the moving averages-if cannot clear 53.00 then could see more downside, especially if ends the month under 51.94
DG Inside day but still has to fail S1 55.74 for an add to our short
Bye For Now!
