The S&P 500 closed on new highs for 2014 along with the Dow! Now the question on everyone’s mind-is this for real?
After all, 2-3 times so far this year, it looked like a melt-up coming, only to see it met with dried up volume and selling.
My guess is that by the time NASDAQ and the Russell 2000s see their way to the 2014 highs (if they do) SPYand DIA will look overbought. But, that is a guess. For now, a round of good economic numbers helped with the big scary jobs report due out Friday.
One thing for certain, the financial sector held where it needed to with the rates firming from the lows.
S&P 500 (SPY) Up 4 days in a row-that probably means digestion ahead of Friday’s report Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) What did the big tomato say to the little tomato? Catch up!
Dow (DIA) Another one suspect could digest on Thursday
Nasdaq (QQQ) 88.50 is the support to hold
XLF (Financials) Not at the highs but really really close
SMH (Semiconductors) A bit overbought so resting
IYT (Transportation) New highs as I suspected for this group
IBB (Biotechnology) Unless this clears 245, still vulnerable with a break of 238 trouble
XRT (Retail) Consumer confidence is alive and well
IYR (Real Estate) 68.85 is the real place now to cross but this has been better lately than how the year began, even before the market came back
GLD 125.50 or 121-what will this see first?
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed bearish phase but not reading too much into that yet
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 70.15 should be resistance
UUP (Dollar Bull) Closed at 21.50 first time since late February-good point to watch
KRE (Regional Banks) The strong, silent type
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Very well could be forming a significant and long term bottom-which was part of my 2014 forecast
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: 33.80 should be support
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JPM R1 and today’s highs line up with risk good to today’s lows for a move to 64
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AAPL Looks headed to 555
SWC If holds today’s lows, has a shot to continue up to 15.95 and beyond
TSLA Got to 230 today on a 5 minute OR. Now, probably wait until an ORR if not in it
PSX Inside day on the 10 DMA best risk. If clears 79.64 looks poised to new highs
LNC Inside day over the 10 DMA. Has to hold today’s low and clear52.09 to see 58.00
IBN Close to the highs with a good risk to 43.30 and looks good on longer term charts to around 49.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ICE Possible reversal off the lows and phase change over the 200 DMA. 198 is a good tight stop if good can go to 220
STT As long as 69.25 holds,has a gap to fill at 72.54-miniswing
AXL Confirmed the accumulation phase. Now has to hold 19.30 to see 20.50 next
ALGN One more push will get this over the 50 DMA. Then can use the 10 DMA as a risk
GM Holding the slingshot low at 33.57 after an inside day. Worst could be over for this company Has to clear 35.14
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EBAY If cannot clear today’s highs, then go see the 200 DMA 53.60 and lower next
MNST Inside day. Cannot clear 70.60 and if fails 69.10 could see 59.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
IACI Under 72.15 looks heavy with risk to 72.40-tight
EL Under S1 like it with risk to today’s high
Bye For Now!
