As a part-time actor in our local community theaters, I think a lot about the iconicComedy and Tragedy Mask. The masks were taken from Greek Mythology and were worn in the Greek theater to distinguish the different emotions of the characters. Actors were able to play more than one character because of the masks. In fact, the actors could truly be called two-faced!
The market too, has many masks, with both Comedy and Tragedy alive and well depending upon where one looks. Before I go further, I nearly fell out of my chair when I read this: The word (tragoidia), from which the word "tragedy" is derived, is a compound of two Greek words: (tragos) or "goat" and (ode) meaning "song."
Goat??? Or in this case, goat song. As in sheep as in ram as in The Year of the Bleating…according to the Chinese New Year. How’s that for synchronicity!
What masks is the market donning? Beginning with tragedy and sticking to myEconomic Modern Family-Transportation (IYT) remains weak (Distribution Phase), therefore a concern. Transportation is a reflection (in my amateur economist’s viewpoint) of a still fledgling US economy, which many still believe measures with a Shakespearean tragedy.
Next, Semiconductors (SMH), closed right on the pivotal point 54.85 which means Monday should be decisive on which mask this group decides to put on.SMH remains in a confirmed warning phase.
Biotechnology (IBB), had an inside day last Thursday and held the 50 DMA therefore, didn’t fall apart necessarily. Yet, IBB closed red and looks heavy.
Who’s wearing the mask of Comedy? For one, Grandpa Russell 2000’s. Now, comedy doesn’t necessarily have to be ha ha funny-it could represent satire. Here’s where this seems to weigh in. The slope on the fast moving average which it marginally held, is sloping down. Although the phase is strongly bullish, the high of the nasty March 25th candle or 125.60 really has to clear to get the audience laughing! After all, a laugh track is no substitute for the real thing!
Then there’s Grandma Retail (XRT). Well, she having a heck of a good time, basing near the highs. She gets to keep the Comedy mask. Finally, we look at Sister Regional Banks (KRE). This one I continue to love. It’s holding support, slopes are positive and we can count on one more move over the 41.20 area to push her center stage.
As the origin of the masks were intended to allow the actors to play many different roles, so will the market continue to demonstrate diversity with both comic and tragic players alike.
“All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players. They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts…” William Shakespeare
Happy Passover and Easter!
S&P 500 (SPY) Held 204, now looking at 208. Subscribers: Positive Positive in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Over 125.60 should help the rest of the market and under 124.20 trouble
Dow (DIA) Really, over 178.50 is the place to clear and now we have a couple of bottoms at 175.50 area
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day. 104.50 major support with 107 major resistance
XLF (Financials) Over 24.25 new ballgame.
KRE (Regional Banks) A close over 41.06, I think I love you
IYT (Transportation) Unless this gets back over 155.40 quick, pay attention
IBB (Biotechnology) Over 344 and we can say thank you!
XRT (Retail) Like to see this clear 101.83 and hold 100.00
IYR (Real Estate) Over 80.00 could have a bounce and under 78.60 see more downside
ITB (US Home Construction) New highs on Thursday
GLD (Gold Trust) Inside day. 116 next point to clear and 115 support now
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day. Has to clear the 50 DMA to keep going
XLE (Energy) Looking for a close above 78.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Held 50.00, now pivotal
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Possible reversal candle last week and a double bottom
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.40 is the 50 DMA
EEM (Emerging Markets) Basing and now near the top of the range
EWW (Mexico) All about a close over 60.00
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) I hope some of you are long here since been bullish all year and noted such
RSX (Russia) Like to see it hold 17.80 level now.
CORN (Corn) Over 26.00 gets interesting
SGG (Sugar) Cash cleared 12.37 with a strong performance-SGG needs to hold 31.10
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***NEW: Market Tone (What Keith covered during the March 25th Live Coaching). It says Short-term Neutral, Intermediate-Term Positive 2, andLong-Term Positive 5, aggregate makes it a positive 7. S1 is where our bias switches back to negative. Any breakout above pivots is valid. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and reported to you on twitter.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
EA Has to hold Thursdays lows, and clear 58.09-like for a day to mini
Category 2: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
DLTR 80.75 good risk with a move over 81.52 clearing R1
GS Support at 190 with room if market holds for a mini
YUM If holds 78.80 area then can buy on an ORR or a move over 80.00 for a mini
OC Inside day but prefer a day to miniswing trade to catch momentum and get out with tight risk
ADSK Like if holds around 58.75 with 62.00 next resistance
Category 4:N/A
Phase Change:
LVS Closed back above the 200 weekly moving average and like now if confirms over the 50 DMA at 55.98 with the risk to Thursdays low 54.72
JPM Like this over R1 with a risk to around 60.00
FDX 164.00 is the 200 DMA and a good risk. Has to clear R1 166.81
PNRA Has to clear 166.41 the 100 DMA and hold 164 for the tightest risk
PM Need an ORR now as it confirmed
YOKU If this is good, just getting started so can look at an ORR or a buy over Thursday’s high and a tighter risk for a mini
Shorts: Focus List: EBAY NFLX
Category 5: N/A
Category 6:N/A
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
