Lots of phase changes all around as my screen lit up today with yellow-warning, orange-distribution, red-bearish. The big news centers once again around the Dow and S&P 500, both of which defended the 50 daily moving averages keeping them for the time being, in their bullish phases.
The worst damage re: ETFs: Solar, Transportation, Retail, Home Builders, Oil and Gas Exploration. Best performers: Real Estate, US Oil Fund, Country Funds, Gold Miners.
NASDAQ and the Russell 2000s now fairly oversold. All in all, expect that although overall damage done, an unchanged or even slightly lower open tomorrow will bring in some buyers.
However, I will wait a bit longer before I remind my readers of signs of a bottom.
S&P 500 (SPY) The 50 DMA is at 184.02. Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Confirmed warning phase Oversold territory-could it go down to the 200 DMA-yes-but now, more waiting for the end of the selling. That doesn’t mean getting bullish
Dow (DIA) 161.20 the 50 DMA to watch here
Nasdaq (QQQ) Similar to IWM-oversold near the 200 DMA
XLF (Financials) 21.76 the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 43.50 the 50 DMA here
IYT (Transportation) Held the 50 DMA-overall, anything holding the 50 DMA means we are in correction but not necessarily the apocalypse some are calling for
IBB (Biotechnology) Closed green-what I expect can happen elsewhere Tuesday
XRT (Retail) Nasty move back down to the 200 DMA
IYR (Real Estate) 68.85 decent resistance-and now, 67.60 good support
XHB (Homebuilders) 31.07 the 200 DMA
GLD 125.50 tested-that’s the place to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) Held the 3 moving averages and looks really interesting
OIH (Oil Services) Nasty topping candle
XLE (Energy) We sold the tail today and now see no reason that was a bad thing
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Classic topping candles in this too
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 67.00 support to watch
UUP (Dollar Bull) Did not hold 21.50
EEM (Emerging Markets) Inside day
KRE (Regional Banks) Held some support at 40.37 and if good, 41.40 now place to clear
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Inside day. Very well could be forming a significant and long term bottom-which was part of my 2014 forecast
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Inside day
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: 55.00 has to hold but just bottom picking until this clears 60.00
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
LHO Inside day with a good risk to today’s low on the 10 DMA and a move over 32.99 is what this needs
YPF Inside day held the 10 DMA and R1 lines up well with today’s high. Most interesting is the weekly and monthly charts-both could be signaling a major reversal after over 2 years
TTM Today’s low should hold and again, R and today’s high line up-near the highs so really like the potential here
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) N/A
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ONVO We got back in a small part of our original position and like the close a lot. If today’s low holds, looking for possible add over 8.35
YUM Reentered a small position here as well against the 10 DMA and like that R1 and today’s high line up
DDD Keeping it here as the possibility of a slingshot low is marginal-and a move over R1 lines up well with today’s high
DLR Held the 200 DMA with an inside day. Now, over 53.69 clears R1 with risk to the 200 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
TSLA If cannot clear today’s high still see possible move to 190
Bye For Now!
