With about an hour to go before Tuesday’s close, I tweeted that our delicate sibling, Transportation (IYT), needed to finish out the session over 124.94 or higher in order to give us a potential 2-day strong bottoming pattern after the new 60-day low posted Monday. Instead, it closed green but on the intraday lows.
Monday night I wrote here that Semiconductors (SMH) needed to clear 55.70, or weakness prevailed. SMH did hold 54.85 again but weakness does indeed prevail.
Biotechnology (IBB) had to defend 340 (c’mon big bro’-counting on you) andRegional Banks (KRE) really had to pierce 41.20 and hold 40.00. KRE closed at 40.89, range bound.
Grandpa Russell 2000’s, I wrote, would not get a standing “O” from yours truly until it clears 125.60.
Was I sated bull? Actually, more like a tentative sheep, hugging the herd, hoping I am not the next serving of lamb chops at Peter Luger’s Steak House!
In the world of commodities, Cotton, Oil, Sugar, are 3 I have featured lately that ran up further. Gold dropped but held 116.00, a decent pivotal area.
Overall, I still like several commodities and a few select equities that have been basing after a terrible and countertrend 2014. As far as 2015 goes, the answer to the question of how green is my pasture changes almost on a day to day basis from emerald to olive drab.
S&P 500 (SPY) Unconfirmed return to a WARNING Phase. Let’s say 206 is good place to look for support, with 204 the more substantial support. 209.35 is now the placed to clear Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all except IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tuesday was the day it really should have cleared 125.60 and didn’t. This could visit 123 and bounce, otherwise, looking at the 50 DMA as this is the holdout in a bullish phase
Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed return to a WARNING Phase. 177.69 would be good to hold or could see a drop to the 200 DMA with more overall weakness everywhere else
Nasdaq (QQQ) Unconfirmed return to a WARNING Phase. 104.65 is a key area of this will drop further to 102.75. Over 107 would change the picture a lot
XLF (Financials) Unconfirmed return to a WARNING Phase. 23.80 support, 24.18 the 50 DMA and over 24.45 nice
IYT (Transportation) only positive is the inverted hammer doji which can be seen as positive if the low of Tuesday holds
IBB (Biotechnology) Under 335 trouble and a close over 342 way better
XRT (Retail) Inside day Like to see this clear 101.83 and hold 100.00
IYR (Real Estate) Under 78.80 see more downside
ITB (US Home Construction) Confirmed the reversal candle and a great example of not trusting new highs in this environment.
GLD (Gold Trust) Held 116.00 which is a good pivotal point
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed Recovery Phase provided it holds 17.90
XLE (Energy) 78.00 support and over 81.00 looks great.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Great move over 50 now running into resistance at 53.00-54.00
UNG (US NatGas Fund) Subscribers: 13.66 has to clear for a swing with risk to lows
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs inside day over the 50 DMA
UUP (Dollar Bull) Next time over 26.00 should keep going
EWW (Mexico) Over 60.00. Now a dip buyer until 60 breaks with an inside day
EWY (South Korea) Held 58.00
RSX (Russia) Inside day
CORN (Corn) Over 26.00 gets interesting
SGG (Sugar) 13.00 in cash next place to clear
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
***NEW: Market Tone: Short-term Positive 3, Intermediate-Term Positive 3, and Long-Term Positive 6, aggregate makes it a positive 12. We are calling this a trading range within a trading range. NOTE: Market Tone is updated before the open each day and reported to you on twitter.
Category 1: N/A
Category 2:N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy an opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
EA The 50 DMA is 56.13 to hold and over 58.15 better
AMZN Like for a daytrade add over 380.00 after the inside day
Category 4: N/A
Phase Change:
P If holds 16.19 and clears over 16.58 could have a good pop before earnings 4/23
LVS Inside day and would wait for a move over 57.00
YOKU ORR preferred now
TSLA Inside day and sitting on the 50 DMA-200 a decent risk for a mini
PNRA Inside day and has to clear 166.30 hold the 50 DMA at 163.60
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ILMN Has to break S1 and 180.45 now and not get back over 181.71 the 200 DMA if that happens
DISH Inside day. Has to break S1 and not clear 71.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s low
DTV Risk is over 86.87 if breaks S1 86.13 for a mini to swing
EBAY Under S1 now and has to stay below the 50 DMA 57.17
Best Best wishes for your trading,
Michele Schneider
