An excerpt from Monday’s night daily: All in all, expect that although overall damage done, an unchanged or even slightly lower open tomorrow will bring in some buyers.
And so it did. However, as one who tracks several indicators, not the least of which are the pivots and their lineups, I can tell you that Tuesday’s session does not bring back the warm and fuzzies.
The Dow could not cross the floor trader midpoint and the others could not clear either first resistance points(R1) nor prior day high. The Dow is super close to the 50 DMA while the S&P 500 tested it and then held on. Of course, the small caps and NASDAQ are well beneath their 50 DMA.
So what else? An inside day (range inside of Monday’s range) in the Russell 2000s aka small caps andNASDAQ.
With lots of overhead resistance, we can only assume that even if we get another green day, the worst is not over-still no reason to reiterate the signs of a bottom.
S&P 500 (SPY) The 50 DMA is at 184.15. A move over 185.81 could bring some more life Subscribers: Negative Pivots here and in DIA. Positive in QQQ and IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Over 114.46 would be welcomed. Otherwise, a good one to follow the range break either way
Dow (DIA) 161.30 the 50 DMA to watch here
Nasdaq (QQQ) Over 86.75 some relief here otherwise, another one to watch for the range break to follow
XLF (Financials) Tested and held the 50 DMA. If moves back over 21.96 a better sign all around
SMH (Semiconductors) Semis the new biotech and so much prettier than their predecessors
IYT (Transportation) 132.50 the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Bumping above the 200 DMA but way too soon to predict if that will hold
XRT (Retail) Inside day on the 200 DMA-big eyes to see where this goes
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. 68.85 decent resistance-and if clears very promising
XHB (Homebuilders) 31.09 the 200 DMA
GLD Crossed the 200 DMA but not the 50 DMA-watch the range today-especially after the FED minutes-could very well set the trend direction for the next few months
USO (US Oil Fund) 37.34 and above negates the island top
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day after the nasty topping candle
XLE (Energy) Inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day and back over the fast moving average
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) FED minutes coming up
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: Reached P1!
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: It should continue up from here if old fashioned chart reading still works
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Looks pretty good here even near the highs
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: 55.00 has to hold but just bottom picking until this clears 60.00
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
POST EARNINGS TRADE: AA beat expectation and a move over 12.80 could take it up
LHO Today’s low good support with clear skies if it clears 33.35
KMB Inside day with today’s low good support and should clear R1 and Monday’s high
XOM Reports 4/21-4/25 Like the condition improvement against the lows or 10 DMA and 101.50 not out of the question as a target
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
NFLX Looks like it confirmed the brick wall bottom-with earnings on 4/21, may be look at April 375 calls at around 2.50
QIHU Brick wall bottom which means like over the 10 DMA or on an ORR
LNKD Brick wall bottom if holds Monday low-good for ORR or a move over today’s highs
ONVO Holding the 200 DMA but still has to clear recent congestion around 8.25
YUM Great follow through and now 75.35 should be support
DLR 53 is max risk and still has to get going over today’s high and R1
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DISH Inside day rig on the 50 DMA which means a break pf 58.30 could bring this down to 54.00
Bye For Now!
