Tonight’s evening watch was prepared by Keith Schneider.
The divergence in the market continued today. As IWM under performed and staying under the 200 DMA in a distribution phase. The QQQ’s on the other hand show real strength today as they rallied back towards the highs at 97.51. Spy and DIA are still trying to get back over the 50 DMA and thus remain in a warning phase. A little more ominous is the slope of the 50 DMA in DIA that is turning down.
S&P 500 (SPY) Now approaching the 50 DMA still holding a warning phase. Would like to see hold PDL and clear R2 at 195.75 which also takes out the 50 DMA Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tested the 200 DMA but still not out of the woods. If it can clear 113.80 or R1 takes out the 200 DMA and on an intraday basis change phase to warning.
Dow (DIA) working on recovering its bullish phase, needs to hold 165 and ultimately clear the 50 DMA. Still looks weak. Plenty of work to do.
Nasdaq (QQQ) the crown jewel is in full bullish mode. Back over the 10 DMA and is the strongest of the U.S indices.
XLF (Financials) Next test is at the 50 DMA or 22.71 but lackluster performance today.
KRE (Regional Banks) Cleared the 10 DMA but still needs to clear 38.30. Lackluster performance on a strong day.
SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish, led by INTC, which is on fire.
IYT (Transportation) Closed just shy of the 50 DMA. 147.50 would get this back in gear.
IBB (Biotechnology) Back to unconfirmed bull phase with a nice move today.
XRT (Retail) Back below 200 DMA in an unconfirmed distribution phase. One of the weaker sectors.
IYR (Real Estate) Nice move back up to 2014 highs.
ITB (US Home Construction) Very weak relative performance in a bear phase. Breaking down on all time frames.
GLD Inside day, bullish phase and sitting on its key long and very long term support levels.
Metals and Mining (XME) compressing. Could be one to watch.
USO (US Oil Fund) confirmed Distribution phase.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. One of the weaker sectors, and even with the Middle East turmoil, a very muted action across the board.
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Looks heavy under the 200 DMA
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: tested the 50 DMA and back in an unconfirmed warning phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT-114.70 is a key level of support. If breached we might have seen a potential top put in.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Strongest currency out there. Which makes sense considering the Chinese are back to buying U.S debt.
EEM (Emerging Markets) In gear.
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Subscribers: Needs to clear 25.46 to reclaim bullish phase.
EWW (Mexico) Subscribers: Could be a runner
FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Subscribers: “Looking good Billy Ray” and poised to take out critical swing point going back over a year.
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Inside day
JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Did someone hit the pause button?
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CCI good for miniswing trade with risk to 76.72
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
PEP Inside day good for a breakout over 91.90 risk to under 91.00
FB good for a breakout risk to S1
CTB still poised after inside day yesterday especially for a day to miniswing if holds 30.15
*RHT Looks like it could reach its all time highs best for an opening range high failure with risk to 58.70
CYH Good for a day to miniswing trade as long as it holds 48.20
TWTR Inside day good over todays highs
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
ONVO 8.41 is the 200 DMA but now, like a lot if holds this 7.70 level
FWLT slingshot low which means if holds 31.87 area and clears 32.53 still good
DDD Positive pivots, watch for opening range breakouts if clears 50.00 takes out recent resistance.
HCA good if breaks out over todays highs possible to see new highs
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
COG bearish phase good for an OR high failure or breakdown under 33.50
APC Inside day, short under lows from 8/12/2014
FTI Inside day under the 50 DMA
HUN Failed at the 50 DMA 26.90 clears S1 and support from 8/10/2014
Category 6: White Cap-N/A
