Fact is the toughest market to trade is one that is subject to geopolitical news. The fear that ebbs and flows as rumors which might become substantiated facts-might-create more gyrations then a belly dancer after imbibing two cups of Turkish coffee!
NASDAQ, now actually getting a bit annoying, is holding onto that 50 DMA, with one quick drop below intraday only to marginally close above it. Why is that annoying? Because, as the holdout on going negative, it has just enough life to make bulls nervous and make bears ask themselves why they just got suckered into selling the low tick?
Looking at volume in the QQQ, we have had 3 Distribution days (when the volume exceeds the volume from the day prior and the instrument closes in the red) in the last two weeks. That and the other indices all transitioning to more negative phases does suggest more downside in store.
The Dow has already had 4 Distribution days which signals strong warning. One more in QQQs and it’s a royal flush! Let’s put it this way, always ready for anything, I would nonetheless be rather surprised to see this market turn right back up.
For now, let’s call this short-term neutral, intermediate term negative under a dome of trendless, choppy action.
S&P 500 (SPY) Closed on new lows for the week and new 60-day lows. Only a move over 194 will save this from a visit to the 200 DMA Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Under 110, 108 is the May low area. Over 112.50 perhaps some new life
Dow (DIA) Oh 200 DMA, I want you so badly!
Nasdaq (QQQ) 94.00 is the 50 DMA. If that holds and this turns up on good volume, I will get more positive. For now, that line in the sand looks even more precarious.
XLF (Financials) May lows are under the 200 DMA-therefore, looking at 21.50
SMH (Semiconductors) Strengthening warning phase
IBB (Biotechnology) And, back to warning phase
XRT (Retail) Talk about your sideways trendless but wanna be bull chart formation!
GLD Confirmed bullish phase
Metals and Mining (XME) Has to take out 43.00
USO (US Oil Fund) Unconfirmed warning phase Subscribers: Possible slingshot low and one that confirms over R1 36.30 with a great risk to today’s low if does
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 2 Inside days and worth following the way the range breaks
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Subscribers: I am super bullish here but it will be hard to buck the rest of the market on a Friday-so let’s wait to see what Monday brings
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs –Will they ever stop?
UUP (Dollar Bull) No confirmation of a reversal top so still ok
CORN (Corn) Subscribers: Inside day. Over 26.60 might be an add
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
*INTC Inside day and held S1-with neutral pivots. One that is above the 6 month calendar range
*NEM Inside day, above the calendar range now and over 26.25 like with risk to 25.91
*JBLU Great risk to the 50 DMA and looks good also if holds 10.99
NWL Inside day with R1 33.05 clearing Wednesday high-like a miniswing risk best
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
*EHTH Some pretty tight consolidation with a good close21.75 R1 with 20.75 risk
LULU Reported-Looks like it will gap over the 50 DMA so worth watching
YOKU Reports August 21st Confirmed the slingshot today-a fave for tomorrow with risk around 18.75
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
ALGN 54.46-54.51 is the 50 DMA resistance. Under 53.20 looks lower to 51.00 next support
AMZN Under 310 still see 300 in a weak market
CVX 2 Inside days. 127 risk and could see quick trip to the 200 DMA 122
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s low
ROST Great white cap setup with 9 days of rising pivots in a bear phase. And an inside day. Under 64.15 breaks S1 and the 10 DMA. Best risk is to R2 but would look for a better one depending
QCOR Closed green but under the 50 DMA making todays high great risk. Has to break S1
