Red and green are not only the colors of the season, but also those of my radar screen. Not much in the way of volume either, which means the first day of the second week, of the last month of the 13th year of the 21st century, did absolutely nothing to change the course of the bull market. Just making me look even more forward to some good ole holiday cheer!
S&P 500 (SPY) 181.75 the 2013 high with Monday’s high 181.67so close. Now, 180.50 pivotal support with slight overbought conditions coming into view Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) If there was damage to be done, it could have been here. However, all this did was close right at the fast moving average.
Dow (DIA) 159.75 becomes an important area of support
Nasdaq (QQQ) New highs and also approaching overbought on weekly and monthly charts
XLF (Financials) Cleared 21.45 and now has to hold around there
SMH (Semiconductors) Looks like it confirmed the runaway gap
XRT (Retail) With a good 5-6 day correction, Monday’s low becomes important
IYT (Transportation) 128.40 good point to hold now for it to continue
IBB (Biotechnology) Held 219 and digesting
IYR (Real Estate) Cleared the fast moving average. Looks like unless something dramatic happens with rates, might be trying to bottom
XHB (Homebuilders) Now has to clear 31.50 to continue
GLD Holding on for dear life
USO (US Oil Fund) Backing away from the overhead resistance with a move under 34.85 looking like more downside
OIH (Oil Services) I like the long term chart so watching for a move over 48.25
XLE (Energy) Inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Oversold now
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Not letting go of TLTs future just yet
EWG (Germany) 30.33 is the low of the island top to clear to negate that pattern
FXI (China) Inside day
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
YOKU Listed for 2014 but for now, if clears 31.08 like it with risk to today’s low
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
AMT Held support and a candidate now for an opening range reversal.
MCHP Has to hold 43.15 level and although the pivots are positive, very slow action there today
X Inside day. Still like this into 2014 with risk now 25.79
GS In the financial group, watching this one to hold 166.64 as this could challenge and clear the overhead channel resistance now at 171.58
FITB 20.13 important to hold with 20.50 good point to clear
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
JBLU If holds 8.25 and clears 8.48 back in play
Phase Change:
OC challenging the 200 DMA if holds today’s low. Longer term looks good to around 45.00
CVX Like today’s low for a possible opening range reversal trade
PLD Cleared the 10 DMA-a fave for Tuesday if holds today’s low
CIEN Inside day pushing against the 50 DMA-like over 24.00 if holds 22.80
BEAM Big move so now like an ORR better against 66.75
TSLA If holds 135-136.00 could be flagging for a move up to 155-156
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
MCD Under 95.20 looks heavy with risk 96.16
CAM Risk now over today’s high and should break 55.00
Bye For Now!
