MMMP: Up 16.6% since Sept. 1st.
SPY: Up 10.5% since Sept 1st.
DIA: Up 8.1% since Sept 1st.
Now really, would you bother to try to pick bottoms or go short as we end 2013 with a great 4 month track record like this one? You may wonder how the early part of the year went-we started tracking every trade in June. August was a vacation month-therefore, best representation available to date.
Unless one sees TSLA as the size of Elon’s SpaceX rockets, that car and its stock got awfully crowded today. Oh, I guess you can also Facebook or tweet about it, pulling your phone out of your Michael Kors purse-otherwise, except for those and a few other stocks, not a lot to do while the market awaits next week’s Fed meeting.
Overall, another weak day all around with some bounce but not enough to think the worst is over. Note that the 50 DMA is a major focus for the indices and sectors/groups. Whether they hold or not going into 2014 is key.
S&P 500 (SPY) Held some daily chart support but the 50 DMA is looking attractive Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day but confirmed the warning phase.
Dow (DIA) Last week’s low was 157.83-didn’t matter much. The 50 DMA a magnet here too
Nasdaq (QQQ) Honestly, since the runaway gap on October 18th, this has met every correction with buying. Therefore, unless 81.35 breaks, have to view this as a correction-one still in progress
XLF (Financials) Held 21.04 but not by much-the 50 DMA is far down but looking more likely
SMH (Semiconductors) The 50 DMA ever so close-
XRT (Retail) Gunning for the 50 DMA
IYT (Transportation) The 50 DMA important
IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day with 213 where the run started from-now support to hold
IYR (Real Estate) This group has not looked good since May-doesn’t mean that the other groups shouldn’t have been bought-but if 6 months ahead of the curve on better economic numbers means higher rates-this group knows it
XHB (Homebuilders) Landed on the 50 DMA-very interested to see what this group does-
GLD Rejected 122 but holding the reversal pattern from 12/03. 118.00 major area to hold for that reversal pattern otherwise, not pretty
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and maybe up move is over
OIH (Oil Services) Inside day
XLE (Energy) Inside day
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) More firming of rates
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HSP Retraced back to the 50 DMA. 40.12 max risk should this clear 40.56 for maybe ½ swing position
CF 225 max risk should this clear 227.75 R1-miniswing
MPC Inside day. Today’s low max risk. 86.90 clears R1-miniswing
SBAC Today’s low good risk with today’s high and R1 lining up-miniswing
XOM 2 inside days. If can clear 72.00 will negate the slingshot high with risk to 70.55- miniswing
GT If holds today’s low and clears 22.50, then could look at a swing trade
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
FITB Could be an inside day-seems the low print could be off from Wednesday. 20.40 clears R1
JBLU Have to look for an opening range reversal now
KORS Explosive move at the end of the day so look for an opening range reversal- miniswing
A If holds today’s low, then over 55.75 could push this to new highs- miniswing
SBGI Good turnaround. Over 34.00 looks good with risk to under 33.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
PLD Possible slingshot low if confirms to clear 36.86 R1 then has to hold todays low-not a bad swing since like the monthly chart
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
EBAY If cannot clear 52.17 the 50 DMA, interested in a swing short
FFIV Broke down today. If cannot clear 83.00 worth looking at for a hybrid swing short
CAM After hanging tough, if this breaks 54.50 pretty safe bet it continues south to 51.50. Risk to be determined
Bye For Now!
