The week seemingly seals a few deals. First, the market is tired. I imagine, traders are tired too.
Although all indices remain in bullish phases, the weekly prices ended either near the lows- i.e. Russell 2000s, the Dow, and S&P 500, or on new weekly lows, as did NASDAQ. Second, with the coming Federal Reserve 2-day meeting, the volume already pretty meager, should get even more so until some (if any) tangible direction on rates and tapering is offered.
Third, DIA and SPY ended on the lows of the week with inside days. Therefore, as following the range break after an inside day makes sense, one can assume if any volume does come in, it will be more to the downside. One thing for sure, smart money has evened up.
Scalpers are looking for the hot tickets-hot until they turn cold. And by week’s end, after a sterling move, Tesla, Google, turned cold. Twitter is still hot, along with Facebook-but scalpers only please. Risk at these levels is incalculable.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day with the 50 DMA even more attractive Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all but in IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Crossed back over the 50 DMA which is the most promising thing I see. If it opens lower, don’t fight it
Dow (DIA) Inside day, also with the 50 DMA nearby unless it really surprises and gets over 158 right out of the gate and stays there
Nasdaq (QQQ) 84.00 in the wings. However, longer term, still in its runaway gap range
XLF (Financials) Volume did come in here creating an accumulation day. However, has to cross the fast moving average to get interesting
SMH (Semiconductors) Touched and held the 50 DMA
XRT (Retail) Touched the 50 DMA but not exactly a bounce. Needs to get going early on Monday or vulnerable
IYT (Transportation) 128 pivotal
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding 213 where the run started from-now support to hold
IYR (Real Estate) 61.90 needs to hold
XHB (Homebuilders) Dancing on the 50 DMA
GLD Rejected 122 but holding the reversal pattern from 12/03. 118.00 major area to hold for that reversal pattern otherwise, not pretty
USO (US Oil Fund) Retreated from the resistance which makes 34.50 important
OIH (Oil Services) 2 inside days-big eyes here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Possible slingshot low if can clear 65.92 R1
EWW (Mexico) 67.55 and above interesting for a possible phase change over the 200 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**Note: With so much overhead resistance, prefer to head into Monday looking a hotscans and finding ones with huge volume trading on their own fumes-not a great time to be putting on swing trades overall
Category 1: (Aloha)N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SBAC Look for an opening range reversal against the low from Friday
GT If the market is heavy wouldn’t chase, but if it comes in higher, than this is good against 22.50
YOKU Against Friday low like this for a reversal or if clears 32.00
EQT Over 88.16 takes out R1 and has to hold 87.00
HCA Over Friday’s high like with risk to the 50 DMA 46.19
X Long a very small position but if has an ORR against the 10 DMA would consider adding-has to hold the 10 DMA to stay in the small position however.
MDVN Although it had a slingshot high on11/04, if can hold Friday’s low, could see a move back to 67.00
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
GMCR could be fun to daytrade on a reversal of if clears 74.16
AXLL Worth watching as it is holding the 200 DMA. If gets over 46.60 R1, then could see a nice day to miniswing type rally
CCL made a move on Friday and reports earnings next Thursday. But, a reversal would look good against the 10 DMA
DRI over Friday’s high still ok with risk to S1 51.40 for Monday.
IGT Inside day which means over Friday’s high then especially 2nd time over 18.00 will go in for swing
SHO small stock but confirmed a slingshot on the 200 DMA so risk to under 12.57 is good especially if clears 12.81 the 10 DMA
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
QCOR One you have to have a wide stop in-in this case, against 55.00 after the inside day. Then, if breaks Friday’s low, can see move to 49.37 th3 200 DMA
Bye For Now!
