Let’s just say that when the closing bell rang, it seemed more like the patient going flat line after being in a coma for most of the day. A good coma, true and somewhat unexpected after last week’s action. However, until we get through the 2-day Fed meeting starting Tuesday, expect more of the same.
Interesting that rates rose along with pretty much every sector and group. Real Estate underperformed for a change as did Oil and Gas Exploration and Biotechnology. The big winner Oil Services with US Oil Fund and Energy second place. Like to see the other groups join in like Semiconductors, and Retail-especially retail as a great barometer of consumer sentiment.
Tesla closed unchanged while Twitter got downgraded. Facebook tested 2013 highs but did not clear. Today was EBAY’s turn to shine-that closed right below a major moving average.
S&P 500 (SPY) Did not clear the 10 DMA which means that how “real” today’s rally is or how long it can sustain remains in question Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) Did clear the fast moving average but not the 111.55 area of resistance. But one could say at least it tried.
Dow (DIA) A gap up helped but again, marginal on whether today is the real thing
Nasdaq (QQQ) Don’t really like the way this candle looks closing inside the range from Friday. Definitely needs to prove itself
XLF (Financials) From an accumulation day came some follow through with another decent day of volume. Needs another push over 21.30
SMH (Semiconductors) 41.50 has to clear to give confidence
XRT (Retail) 86.50 has to clear here or still vulnerable
IYT (Transportation) 128 pivotal and it closed just shy of that number
IBB (Biotechnology) Holding 213 where the run started from-now support to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and on critical support.
XHB (Homebuilders) If this holds 31.00 worth watching
GLD Range 122-118
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.50 important support with 35.25 resistance to clear
OIH (Oil Services) The winner on percentage gain-now let’s see 47.80 clear before we look at this as a one day wonder
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subscribers: Would not exactly say today confirmed the slingshot-but, over todays high could be interesting
EWW (Mexico) Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Like this country ETF
EWG (Germany) Couldn’t make it to where it needed to go to negate the island top
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CF Started to climb end of day from the lows. Over 228.63 or R1 like for a continuation move for day to mini
Category 2: (Pipeline)N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HCA Had an opening range reversal so now, if clears 47.39 looks better
TXT Good volume and back to the 10 DMA. If holds 31.0 area, still has lots of room
MAS Inside day-worth watching over 21.65
DDD 2 shooting stars. Over 82.00 looks good but under79.50 will correct more
JBLU 8.65 area key support with a move over 8.88 good reason to think the move up will continue
X Inside day and slightly negative pivots-over 27.50 looks good
GOOG Inside day. Like with a daytrade risk to see if it can clear 1076.29 Friday’s high
AMZN Lets look at the big stocks. This, over 389 if holds 385 looks good
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AXLL Inside day on the 200 DMA-46.72 has to clear
F Has to clear the 50 DMA but if does, would go with it
SWC My favorite of the miners. One more push over the 200 DMA 11.65 and will be first time over since August-has to close there too
Shorts:
Category 5:N/A
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
QCOR One you have to have a wide stop in-in this case, against 55.00 after the inside day. Then, if breaks today’s low, can see move to 49.37 th3 200 DMA
Bye For Now!
