Identical Twins Marjorie Gilbert and Winifred Witt from South Wales, both celebrate their 100th birthday today. They have been inseparable all their lives even while they were married and still to this day, live together.
Who else celebrates its 100th birthday? The Federal Reserve. Created in the wake of the financial panics of the early 20th century, President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act creating the US Central bank. Tomorrow is Ben Bernanke’s last Fed announcement before he retires. My guess is he’s probably not joining Marjorie and Winifred in their nursing home anytime soon.
What else happened today? A homeowner in South Hampton, NY-an exclusive beach and resort area, offered to take Bitcoin for his house priced at $799,000.
What’s the connection? I could draw parallels between the threat of an alternative currency taking hold with the now super-power the Fed has become. Or the irony of loyalty between twins who clearly have each other to keep them going versus us who hope the Fed remains our loyal friend. But really, take these headlines more as a sign that the market has frozen in time til tomorrow and I had lots of time on my hands.
S&P 500 (SPY) Retreated from the 10 DMA. Looking heavy but anything can happen Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all although more flat in DIA and IWM
Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day above the fast moving average. Still watching 111.55
Dow (DIA) Inside day and right on the fast moving average
Nasdaq (QQQ) Above today’s high has a fighting chance. Otherwise, like everything-vulnerable in the FED aftermath
XLF (Financials) 21.04 or bust
SMH (Semiconductors) Tried for 41.50 but closed shy of it
XRT (Retail) Doesn’t look that good-the 50 DMA is right there for the taking
IYR (Real Estate) Closed green but not enough to say “bottom”
GLD Range 122-118
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.50 important support with 35.25 resistance to clear
OIH (Oil Services) One day wonder
XLE (Energy) Warning and still in warning
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Perhaps over 66.20 gets interesting
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingl
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
MCHP still holding the runaway gap and back to an unconfirmed bullish phase. Needs to hold today’s lows
CNX Back on list. If holds today’s low, like over 37.75 R1 for swing
TXT Long small position, inside day over the 10 DMA-like a lot if clears 32.33 Risk now 31.50 level
DDD 3 shooting stars. Over 82.65 looks great but under79.50 will correct more
X 2 inside days now. Over 27.50 very nice, under 26.80 we will get out of our long
SCTY Cleared the 50 DMA. Has to hold today’s low and get above 54.00 next
GS At the top of the channel and an inside day. If clears 172.20 then it clears the channel and can use a risk of today’s low for a hybrid swing
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
AXLL 46.55 and above would make this more interesting
SWC Nearly made a phase change-we have a small position in case it clears the 200 DMA. If not, will exit on the swing stop 11.09
SFY 13.22 is really the point to clear and now, 12.65 place to hold
TOL Post Fed if the phase change from today holds, like this against today’s low
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
DVN Inside day. 60.52 max risk with support at the 20 DMA 57.80
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
QCOR If what I saw on the aftermarket is true- I say not fair. After writing that the risk was 55.00 and today’s high was 54.97, the aftermarket bid/offer 51.70/51.79
Bye For Now!
