The hardest thing for an active trader to do is leave a thriving bull market for a vacation where sitting on a beach or touring a museum bores in comparison. However, this active trader knows that the market is always here, doesn’t really care about any individual trader, therefore it behooves one to take a rest from time to time.
With that said, this will be my final daily commentary until we begin the New Year on January 2nd, 2014.
The week ended with small caps taking out the 2013 highs. Semiconductors ended on new highs with better than decent rallies in some of the lagging groups (Oil and Gas Exploration), while others continue to lackluster (Real Estate for example.) Otherwise, soft commodities like sugar appear to be bottoming, and some country ETFs, particularly India, changed to a more positive phase.
Typically, the final trading week of the year stays within the expected phase (bullish) in the indices, albeit with low volume. Henceforth, I leave all in good shape as we look forward to an amazing 2014.
Happy Holidays to all and a very Healthy and Happy New Year!
S&P 500 (SPY) Intraday, ticked above the 2013 highs but closed just shy of the 2013 highest closing price.Subscribers: Positive Pivots in all
Russell 2000 (IWM) New 2013 highs!
Dow (DIA) Weird little inverted hammer candle bar, but still-all good!
Nasdaq (QQQ) Closed on new highs. 90.00 not out of the question, but doubtful we will see that next week
XLF (Financials) 21.67 the 2013 high-but closed down at 21.60
SMH (Semiconductors) New highs and best news? Not overbought at all
XRT (Retail) Has to clear 87.34 to continue the up move
IYT (Transportation) 130.78 the 2013 high
IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared 220 and closed really well
IYR (Real Estate) 2 inside days-perhaps the most interesting place to be on Monday for a break either way of the range
XHB (Homebuilders) Looks good for 2014
GLD Digested the down move on Friday
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed accumulation phase with an inside day-another place to watch
OIH (Oil Services) Coming back but still lagging
XLE (Energy) Has to clear 87.04 to keep going
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Moment of truth against the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Interesting that TLTs popped back up-however, the 50 DMA is what really counts
IFN (India Fund) Long term friendly
EWG (Germany) New highs
FXI (China) Inside day and a weak close overall
EWW (Mexico) Key resistance just overhead and if clears, good for this country ETF
FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) Subscribers: Right up to the 50 DMA
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Brick wall bottom confirms
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
**NOTE: As you know, you will be with Matt and Geoff as of Monday in the daytrading room. Therefore, unless I specific here something for a swing, or Matt or Geoff say otherwise, assume these are good for daytrades and perhaps miniswings max.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
HCA great close on Friday. 46.20 the 50 DMA to hold and if this clears 47.50 looks really good longer term
P Got the ORR Friday and had an inside day. Over 28.69 with risk 27.55 area good
GT Love this over 22.95 with risk the 50 DMA for a swing
EQT Heading into resistance so prefer an ORR now
TXT What can I say? Closed up 14.4% Merry Christmas to all, even those who don’t celebrate Christmas! Keeping the tail with trailing stop.
FB Another fave for Monday. Inside day with support to use 54.00 and over 55.19 a move to new highs likely.
TRIP Been waiting for this to get back to a bullish phase. It did with great volume on Friday. Friday low good risk with resistance up around 85-86.00
MAS 21.50 now a good support level with a clearance over 22.00 much better
ONVO A 2014 pick. Great move off the 50 DMA now risk. If clears the 10 DMA 9.16 another one good for a swing
HSP Like this one a lot too. Over 41.50 looks great with 40.80 support
Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A
Phase Change:
PLD 2 inside days-after slingshot low-eyes here for swing
BEAM 67.72 the 50 DMA to clear
SWC Closed in an unconfirmed accumulation phase so could be just getting going if the 200 DMA holds-swing
CCUR Like the close on Friday. Keep the swing stop at 7.43 and with the add, looking at a move over 7.76 then over 8.00
Shorts: Since reluctant to recommend any shorts other than daytrades, will leave any picks to Matt's Focus List. He will walk you through setups that appear.
Bye For Now!
